AP-GfK Battleground State Poll:

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:03:53 PM EST
Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)

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A new AP-GfK poll in 8 battleground states has Obama ahead or tied in all of them, including four states that Bush won in 2004.

The states are: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The polling shows Obama leading in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.

Obama is winning by double-digits in PA and NH. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, PA has 21 and FL has 27. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9, NC 15 and Virginia 13.

On issues, Obama leads on almost every one from the economy to health care. He pulls even with McCain or leads on national security.[More...]

Even on the question of "who would make the right decision about national security," typically a strong suit for McCain, Obama holds a slight lead in Nevada and is running even against his GOP rival in Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

New Mexico and Iowa are "goners" for McCain and Montana is in play. In Colorado, 70% of Hispanics are voting for Obama.

GOP consultants have developed a defeatist attitude.

"If you believe in miracles," said GOP consultant Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Va., "you still believe in McCain."

"I get the sense it's shutting down," said Tom Rath, a GOP consultant in New Hampshire where McCain trails by 18 points.

The AP reports there are some things McCain can still hope for to pull out a win:

First, there are still a good number of voters are open to changing their minds — from as low as 4 percent in Nevada to 14 percent in New Hampshire.

....Second, the impact of race is a hard-to-measure factor as Obama seeks to become the nation's first black president. In three states — North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania — the number of white Democrats who said the word "violent" described most blacks hit double digits in the polling.

If the only way McCain can win is through racist voters, this country is in very sad shape. I refuse to believe that will happen.

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AP-GfK Battleground State Poll: | 42 comments (42 topical)

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5 hours per day of television (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by coigue on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:34:06 PM EST

and grand theft auto negate 30 minutes per day of history in school.

Yep, 20,000 tv commercials (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Cream City on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 02:42:30 PM EST

is the average number seen by kids by the end of high school -- and all the tv news and sitcoms and nonsense in between.

But as a U.S. history teacher, I couldn't agree more with the need to teach it more -- and to hire those who teach it well. A stunning proportion, as much or more than half in some studies, of high school history teachers are coaches. Schools can't imagine having them teach math or English -- but hey, anyone can teach history! (Yes, but not well.)

And we olden history education majors are to be found no more (I teach college but first trained and was certified to teach grades 7-12 history). About the time that U.S. history became an elective in high schools and colleges, the major changed to "broad field social studies." So even those teachers trained in that today may have taken one or two history courses at most but more in geography, sociology, etc. So we see the result.


: Statistically, victims of (none / 0) (#39)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 06:32:17 PM EST

AA violence are usually other AAs, if my recall is accurate.

" Fall From The Bridge To Nowhere Poll" (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 05:04:40 PM EST

The first post Stevens felony trial poll done by Rasmussen has Begich at +8. That's a 9 point swing in the DEM's direction from the last Rasmussen poll.

Stevens is going to need that massage chair to ease the pain.

Gfk is inflating the black turnout in NC (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:09:49 PM EST

to the 2004 Exit Poll numbers. I think this set of polling is probably pretty sloppy.

Still, even with a fairly sloppy set of polls, these leads are meaningful.

Re: "2004 exit poll numbers": (none / 0) (#10)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:26:49 PM EST

For African Americans? Don't the pollsters and you expect higher AA turnout than in 2004?


I do expect higher AA turnout than 2004 (none / 0) (#13)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:29:20 PM EST

The problem is that the 2004 EP for NC was trash. It said AAs were almost 25% of the electorate. The right number then was closer to 18.


: Thanks. (none / 0) (#17)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:30:59 PM EST

Hasnt it already been demonstrated... (none / 0) (#15)
by Thanin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:29:52 PM EST

that AAs have already outdone turnout from 2004 in early voting?


: I hear in some states (5.00 / 0) (#27)
by Socraticsilence on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:31:12 PM EST

African American early voting may exceed African American poll day voting in 2004.

The folks over at RedState (none / 0) (#2)
by flyerhawk on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:10:49 PM EST

are in serious denial.

So everyday there is ALWAYS an outlier poll showing something favorable for McCain. An everyday there is a post there using that outlier as proof that the race is tightening, ignoring all the other polls that don't show this at all.

Most of the trackers (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:13:56 PM EST

do show tightening over the last week. Probably not enough for McCain to win, though. The key thing to look at is Obama's topline: over 51% is good.


Sure (none / 0) (#5)
by flyerhawk on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:17:37 PM EST

but the state polls are still painting a very bleak picture.

And the trackers have shown a very modest tightening.


Read a piece on yahoo yesterday (5.00 / 0) (#6)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:24:09 PM EST

that said national trackers are completely meaningless this close to the election, as they are useful only as trend indicators before, not gospel. The author stated that the real action in the final two weeks or so is in the state polling, since we have an electoral college. A swing voter or undecided in CA isn't worth a c*ap right now. Me? I look at all polls, national and state, and access them evenly, but I'm no expert and maybe I'm off-base.


: perfect (none / 0) (#36)
by Jlvngstn on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 03:54:04 PM EST

what i tried to say earlier and you nailed it right on the head. When a poller called the other night, my wife said "McCain" and we had a good laugh. Why bother polling in Illinois, it is unwinnable for daddy mac yet the "national" trends is all he has at this point.
Here are the states that matter from a polling perspective in no particular order, PA, VA, OH, FL, NM, NV, NC, CO, am I missing anyone?
PA and VA O leads substantially, and is comfortable in NM as well. National polls right now are all but meaningless and they are most between 4-5, what happens when O wins by 8?
There is a reason why Cincy-Cleveland is never game of the week on ESPN, because the outcome is meaningless.

In a perfect world (none / 0) (#7)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:24:24 PM EST

I would have a reputable tracker for every potentially close state and a weekly poll for every other state. I'm sure the campaigns have internal polling that looks something like that.

Unfortunately, I'm stuck with national trackers of varying quality and state polls that are similarly iffy, and often quite stale.


Well you know Nate Silver at (none / 0) (#16)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:30:34 PM EST

538.com rates pollsters' track records. Just kidding andgarden!


heh (none / 0) (#19)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:33:10 PM EST

Let's just say that if I want punditry, there are better places to go than Nate Silver. At least Zogby pretends to run his own poll. . .


Hmm... (none / 0) (#21)
by Thanin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:36:52 PM EST

from what Ive read of 538 he provides hard numbers for his analysis. Is there a specific reason youre so dubious of him?


Mostly, it's because (none / 0) (#22)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:38:54 PM EST

he makes assumptions that could be right or wrong. I prefer to read the polls directly. I can be my own pundit.


: Fair enough (none / 0) (#25)
by Thanin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:40:19 PM EST

: He posts all the polls he uses though (none / 0) (#31)
by Socraticsilence on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:35:10 PM EST

He just makes statistical progressions through them-- now he could be off (heck, I don't think even Nate would say that he's 100% confident in his modeling), but given his track record with other statistical models I think he's worth listening to a bit.

Oh, and try (none / 0) (#23)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:39:44 PM EST

and find out exactly what's in his "model." Try and find out how many versions there have been in the last 4 months.


: Nate Silver's Methodology (none / 0) (#41)
by postmodernprimate on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 07:39:39 PM EST

I haven't the foggiest if his model is sound, but his "Statement of Methodology" is more comprehensively detailed than any other polling service. What evidence is there that he changed his methodology numerous times over the last four months? I'm not saying it isn't true, but if you're right it would be a huge blow to his credibility.

I look at 538 from time to time more for fun (none / 0) (#24)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:40:12 PM EST

than information. I still haven't figured out his method. Then again as everyone knows I'm not a whiz kid yourself, so it's not surprising Silver's method is a dead language to me either way...


The funny thing (none / 0) (#29)
by Socraticsilence on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:32:55 PM EST

Is that this is the very poll that Red State, et al Flacked last week when it showed Obama up only 1 point nationally (of course it was later shown that the poll projected 18-25 year olds going to McCain at a 3-1 Rate), now that its in line with basically every other pollsters state polling-- of course its way off!


Does anyone think (none / 0) (#4)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:17:03 PM EST

the Obamercial airing tonight will produce a bounce (if it's good of course).

Note: The 30 min. spot won't have a negative impact, since anyone who hates Obama or is simply tired of Obama's campaign (whether they vote for him or not), is guaranteed not to watch anyway, so the "anti" talking points aren't very useful in this particular case.

Depends on whether the WS (none / 0) (#8)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:24:50 PM EST

game 5 continues tonight?


Interestingly enough... (none / 0) (#11)
by Thanin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:27:41 PM EST

the baseball people, or whatever theyre formally called (Im not a sports guy) acknowledged that they didnt push back the start time of the WS, but that its always been planned to start at the time Obamas commercial ends. What people will be missing is the pre game stuff.


So, Bud Selig is gaming (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:29:50 PM EST

the election as well as the WS.


: Has nothing to do with Bud (5.00 / 0) (#32)
by CoralGables on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:56:04 PM EST

Each game so far has begun at 8:37 ET. FOX decided they would turn a nicer profit by dropping their pregame show and instead sell the spot to Obama.

: Well... (none / 0) (#18)
by Thanin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:31:21 PM EST

whatever helps keep McRage out Im all for it.

: Ouch oculus! LOL (none / 0) (#20)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:34:36 PM EST

Considering how sick people are at the non-stop (none / 0) (#42)
by MoveThatBus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 11:09:18 PM EST

airing of political ads, I can't imagine more than his diehard fans would even watch this 30 minute ad.


This part... (none / 0) (#9)
by Thanin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:24:55 PM EST

"In three states -- North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania -- the number of white Democrats who said the word "violent" described most blacks hit double digits in the polling."

makes me wonder if this coincides with the coverage of the tragedy that hit Jennifer Hudsons family. Maybe that's just cynical, but the quoted part, to me, makes it sound like the "violent" perception just recently hit double digits.

That statement caught my (none / 0) (#12)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:27:55 PM EST

attention also. Quite a schocker.


Damn. (none / 0) (#28)
by coigue on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 01:32:12 PM EST

I was afraid of that.


That could explain it (none / 0) (#33)
by Cream City on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 02:21:15 PM EST

sadly. Thanks for making the connection that could make sense, for those "heavy users" of media, celeb follower, etc. Not that it makes sense to me, but then, I'm cynical about media "nooz" and not at all a celeb follower. I did catch something, though, in this Hudson story that seemed odd -- something about a white Bronco again. I do remember being in a bar (unusual, but I was on the road) on the night of the OJ chase, and wasn't that a white Bronco?

So I say: Beware white Broncos, not black Americans.:-)


: Actually, its better to (none / 0) (#38)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 06:31:09 PM EST

avoid bars when you're "on the road"!
Big hue and cry on AP news headlines about whether the state should have revoked the suspect's parole, in June, in which case, he would have been in custody on the date of this incident, although not for long after.

: Big chase in Florida today, too (none / 0) (#43)
by MoveThatBus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 11:14:58 PM EST

Aggressive armed robbery in Miami Beach led to a 40+ mile highway chase...perp in big white vehicle. He finally got off the highway, drove to a residential area where he thought he could get away on foot, but, of course, helicopters were watching his every move. Black man. Finally he figured he had nowhere to go, and just sat down on a lawn bench. He didn't fight when the police caught up on foot, he just laid down face first and put his hands behind his head.

Don't Believe the Numbers (none / 0) (#35)
by suntos on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 03:45:39 PM EST

As I said before, I fear these numbers are all wrong because the dem vs rep registration percentages are all wrong - and here is why

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4527837&page=1

Divining rods: (none / 0) (#40)
by oculus on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 06:48:33 PM EST

Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists. McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.

[Excerpt from AP "analysis"; italics added.]