Tsunami Tuesday: First Democratic Results Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:40:00 PM EST
Tags: Tsunami Tuesday, February 5 (all tags)

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Update: Obama wins Alaska. MSNBC calls Missouri for Obama. Hillary's leading in New Mexico.

Update: Missouri at 97% in is 4,000 votes ahead to Obama. I just checked the counties with some precincts out and they are strong Obama counties so I won't be surprised if he wins there. But they will split the delegates so the effect won't be much.

Obama wins Colorado. He's speaking now. It's the unity and change theme, no red or blue states, just the United States.

Update: Hillary wins Arizona, Obama wins Utah and Idaho. Obama advisor David Axelrod: "We feel good about the ten states we won, they feel good about the seven states they won." What he leaves out is the size of the states Hillary won -- New York and Mass. are not equivalent to Utah and North Dakota.

Update: Projections give Illinois and Georgia to Obama. Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee projected for Hillary.

Update: Hillary wins New York, New Jersey, Massachussetts. Obama wins CT, Delaware, Kansas, MN, Alabama, North Dakota. 9:00 MT: polls now closing in California.

More....

***

The results should start coming in within hours. I'll be updating this thread as the evening progresses. States with results will be at the top, the rest will remain in alphabetical order until their results have been determined. (There will be a few hour lag when I leave to go caucus -- feel free to post new ones in the comments along with your thoughts.)

Remember that the winner of the popular vote doesn't get all the delegates. For the Democrats, 1,681 delegates are at stake in 16 primaries and seven caucuses.

Alabama Primary, 60 delegates

Alaska Caucus, 18 delegates

Arizona Primary, 67 delegates

Arkansas Primary, 47 delegates

California Primary, 441 delegates

Colorado Caucus, 71 delegates

Connecticut Primary, 60 delegates

Delaware Primary, 23 delegates

Georgia Primary, 103 delegates

Idaho Caucus, 23 delegates

Illinois Primary, 185 delegates

Kansas Caucus, 41 delegates

Massachusetts Primary, 121 delegates

Minnesota Caucus, 88 delegates

Missouri Primary, 88 delegates

New Jersey Primary, 127 delegates

New Mexico Caucus, 38 delegates

New York Primary, 281 delegates

North Dakota Caucus, 21 delegates

Oklahoma Primary, 47 delegates

Tennessee Primary, 85 delegates

Utah Primary, 29 delegates

Democrats Abroad Primary, 11 delegates

< Live-Blogging My Colorado Caucus | Obama's Bad Night >

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Tsunami Tuesday: First Democratic Results Thread | 179 comments (179 topical)

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Goooooooooo! (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by LarryInNYC on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:00:51 PM EST

Candidates!

The definition of truthiness (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:42:08 PM EST

Jeralyn's state shapes ;-).

Very entertaining.

LOL (none / 0) (#10)
by Josey on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:18:31 PM EST

abbreviated versions. ;>
But Illinois is missing.
Does that mean Hillary won?


: Illinois is there -- (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:02:29 PM EST

the green blob with the looooong border with Missouri (which is why Obama really ought to take Missouri, as he did Iowa).
You're probably just a bit tossed by where the Great Lakes ought to be. :-)

: But admittedly, American Samoa (none / 0) (#14)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:03:53 PM EST

probably is really upset with Jeralyn. Not a good vacation destination for her, unless under an assumed name.

Hillary is (5.00 / 1) (#55)
by talkingpoint on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:48:42 PM EST

winning the primaries and Obama the caucauses (primaries means more). Obama only won 52% of Hispanics in his own state. Big trouble for camp Obama regarding Hispanics. Hillary is going to win MA and NJ, which is huge, but I wonder how the media is going to spin this for Obama.

Maybe the way (none / 0) (#59)
by jen on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:51:55 PM EST

the Obama spokesman on CNN said that Hillary took Tennessee instead of Obama because there were tornados there???!!! ROFLOL!!!


The tornado situation was horrendous (5.00 / 1) (#64)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:55:54 PM EST

About 80? people trapped in various buildings, college students, nursing homes. I think there were deaths.

However, Hillary has huge margins and I'm hard pressed to believe that those margins could have been overtaken....the polls were closed for both candidates....

Obama is a sore loser.


Teresa-- (5.00 / 1) (#66)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:56:59 PM EST

stop with the logic. Tornadoes = spin

Those people were disenfranchised by the tornado, and I swear I saw a Clinton surrogate in a biplane circling Nashville, dropping tornado pellets into the clouds.


: ROTFLMAO n/t (none / 0) (#73)
by MO Blue on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:02:27 PM EST

: I'm sure you'll find that truthiness (none / 0) (#80)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:05:34 PM EST

on the Big Orange rec list.

Oh, here we go (5.00 / 0) (#76)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:04:22 PM EST

With the Obama supporters using the "delegates vs. popular vote" argument.

Spin it, baby, spin it!

I usually like Jeff Toobin (I'm watching CNN) but I don't care for his Obama apologism. Gergen is much more sensible.

shh. Huckabee is speaking now (5.00 / 0) (#91)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:10:50 PM EST

I don't want to miss a word: Widow's mite. David and Goliath reference. Big Victory.

Ok..continue talking.

What are the chances of Idaho (5.00 / 1) (#106)
by lily15 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:21:38 PM EST

Kansas, Georgia, Utah, Alabama of going Democratic in the general? Isn't that important to factor in when assessing Obama's wins?

I've lived in Idaho (none / 0) (#112)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:28:22 PM EST

Idaho will not go for a D.

And yes, the other red states are interesting too. As I posted above, what if Obama, who wins red states, and McCain, who wins blue states were to be matched in a GE?

My head would explode.


: These are just party (none / 0) (#117)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:32:18 PM EST

primaries...doesn't mean much for winning a red state by anybody.

heh heh (5.00 / 1) (#135)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:57:39 PM EST

"When the cameras are off and the bright lights are gone, who is going to still be standing there for you?"

"I won't let anyone swiftboat this country's future."

I love her so much.

And you know those basta*ds at CNN are about to cut her speech off in the middle for CA exit polling results.

: Aww, I love her! (none / 0) (#137)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:02:38 PM EST

And she seems so energized. I think she knows she's gonna win in you-know-where.

: It's a great speech...too bad (none / 0) (#138)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:03:18 PM EST

she doesn't have a teleprompter...but very well done.
GREAT job of taking advantage of the free time when a lot of people who haven't yet caucused or voted would hear her message...and excellent one...hit damn near every point on the Democratic list!

Apparently (5.00 / 1) (#143)
by BDB on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:14:42 PM EST

The new standard for judging tonight is who won the most states. Because North Dakota is totally on par with New Jersey. Hey, they both have two words in their name!

We'll see how Arizona and California go, but I predict Clinton will have gotten significantly more votes overall tonight than Obama.

Oh Gawd, Bernstein's on. Why does CNN hate me?

: I thought you knew (none / 0) (#147)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:18:11 PM EST

Real estate votes now.... ;-).

: I switched to msnbc as soon as Bernstein (none / 0) (#158)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:27:28 PM EST

came on. And I can't stand them either.

CNN discussion of Missouri (5.00 / 1) (#165)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:37:14 PM EST

and St Louis and Kansas City...precincts...wondering which ones are AA. So odd to have the Dems split this way...made me think how odd it would sound if they talked about the 'white women's precincts' that haven't reported yet. Somthing mildly racist about the way this is being reported...

it's only racist (5.00 / 1) (#168)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:40:26 PM EST

if someone from the Clinton campaign says it.

Man, I am an old lady tonight. Can't stay up past 12. Y'all keep up the good fight. I am hoping like crazy I wake up to good news tomorrow morning. Thanks so much for keeping me company. Even the cats abandoned me. Stupid cats.


: Move to the west! It;'s only (none / 0) (#171)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:43:31 PM EST

8:45 here! Still...a nap sounds good as McCain is still speaking.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Although the stats bear it out (none / 0) (#167)
by Virginian on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:40:06 PM EST

it is the assumption that AAs will all vote BO...its a racist assumption...


It's so clean and cute right now (none / 0) (#2)
by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:14:17 PM EST

Everything's at zero except West Virginia. My husband just called to say he was coming home and I said "Get Beer!"

Will Jeralyn blog from the caucus? (none / 0) (#3)
by oculus on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:17:46 PM EST

yes, I'm here and just started (5.00 / 0) (#19)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:40:14 PM EST

a live caucus blogging thread here.


I was wondering if you were going to be (none / 0) (#4)
by Militarytracy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:23:40 PM EST

around tonight. Excited? I Am!


I'm going to a Super Tues. party (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by oculus on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:31:10 PM EST

which will deprive me of Talk Left. What a choice. But I'll hurry home to catch up and, of course, I am on PST.


: I am going to stay home (none / 0) (#8)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 04:52:29 PM EST

and sweat.
I will try not to post 10,000 times here. Honest.
I read on MyDD that California will take a long while to count as far as delegates. Someone said that the popular vote would be easy, and should be in by Wed morning, but the delegate count could take until Friday, which gives the popular vote winner the news cycle for at least two days.

: I planned to go to one, too, but (none / 0) (#9)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:02:34 PM EST

a foot of snow, starting already, may stop me -- the Clinton campaign's party is many miles across town.
The news is that there is such an event at all in my town, with our state's primary two weeks away. I haven't found a sign of similar Obama events. . . .

CNN calls Georgia for Obama, which (none / 0) (#11)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:01:07 PM EST

is so not news. :-)

we have a large (none / 0) (#13)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:03:07 PM EST

aa community here in GA.

God, I hate putting it in those terms, and how come it is that it doesn't sound as bad to say NM goes to Clinton because of its large Latino bloc?

Anyway, CNN just said that it is a state close to SC in demographics, so they must be thinking the same thing, too.

I think I just insulted myself.


The leading state for AA population (none / 0) (#15)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:06:31 PM EST

as I recall (South Carolina second).

And it's perfectly understandable to not "transcend race" when talking about today's results, especially after what we saw in SC. And after Michelle Obama pointed out, at the start of this season, that "Ain't no black people in Iowa!"


okay (none / 0) (#16)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:09:28 PM EST

thank you, cream. I feel better about that now.

From MyDD:

"Obama wins Black voters in the state 86 percent to 13, while Clinton won White voters in the state 54 percent to 43 percent. It looks like that's a very good showing for Obama among both groups. Remains to be seen if this is a bellweather or an aberration..."


: CNN sees it as a very good sign for Obama (none / 0) (#17)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:26:22 PM EST

because it's a much bigger percentage of white voters than in SC, where it was about 25%.
But CNN also has slightly different figures than these, with a higher percentage for Clinton.
It's still all exit polls. Not sure they're any more reliable than the pre-voting polls all over the map these days. And, of course, exit polls still may be adjusted as the night goes on . . . as I now understand from an excellent explanation at pollster.com today.
Essentially, exit polls without results still are pre-voting poll numbers, adjusted only somewhat until the factor of turnout is known. Then, exit polls are adjusted again for that. It makes sense, but it also may make exit polls less meaningful as not really after-voting polls.

Alcoholics Anonymous? (none / 0) (#18)
by Molly Bloom on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:26:07 PM EST

Clinton states called (none / 0) (#20)
by auntmo on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:42:12 PM EST

CNN called Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee for Clinton.

So far, Obama only Georgia and Illinois . And both of those were givens.

Hillary didn't even campaign in Georgia.

for example (none / 0) (#21)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:54:04 PM EST

continuing on my last comment, why did they call AK and OK for her with such few %'s in, yet NJ, which has the same large margin, is not being called. I guess it has something with NJ being the most densely populated states.

I'm surprised how BO is so much ahead AL, considering the latest polls--not that I'm surprised, but the polls showed a closer race.

So many questions...At least we'll have a definitive answer sooner than later.

: NJDem (none / 0) (#22)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:56:40 PM EST

no idea why, and I want to know, too.
Off to the live blogging. Will say one last time that I firmly do not agree with exit polling putting Clinton so low in Georgia. I just don't buy it.
(8:56pm)

: Exit Polls... (none / 0) (#24)
by Dan the Man on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:59:12 PM EST

...are being used as their guide. The exit polls are sucking eggs right now though. It said Clinton LOST NJ.

MSNBC calls mass for Hillary :) (none / 0) (#23)
by athyrio on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:58:44 PM EST

: Exit polls had Obama(tm) winning MA (none / 0) (#25)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:01:46 PM EST

So one down for the big C!

Hey, folks (none / 0) (#26)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:03:10 PM EST

Jeralyn started a liveblog from her caucus. Head on over!

: What is link? (none / 0) (#27)
by IndependantThinker on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:07:39 PM EST

msnbc just called (none / 0) (#28)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:07:56 PM EST

MA for HRC. Again, what is the criteria? Why won't cnn call it?

I really want to know the numbers of voters. I feel that the Dems are energized and voting in unprecedented numbers. If we remain this enthusiastic, which would seem to be the case, then we out-number the Repubs--which is good for supporters of either Dem candidate.

Now they (cnn) called BO for Delware, the % is smaller than other states they're not calling? Is it a population-distribution thing I'm not understanding?

Doesn't Make Kennedy and Kerry Look Good (none / 0) (#52)
by MO Blue on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:45:32 PM EST

when the voters in MA ignored their endorsements. Also, thought Kennedy and Kerry were supposed to have great political machines.


: Hillary always had double digit leads in MA (none / 0) (#68)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:59:10 PM EST

Link (none / 0) (#29)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:09:45 PM EST

to get to Jeralyn's live blog, click here.

Sorry to harp (none / 0) (#30)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:10:05 PM EST

on this criteria thing for being called, but why DE now, but now NJ and MO which seem to have about the same spread with the same %?

Can it be a conspiracy? I'm half joking...

: NJDem (none / 0) (#32)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:13:13 PM EST

I am with you, because it doesn't seem to be uniform. I guess it's a matter of a network honcho saying, "Yeah, I'll stake being shamed and humiliated on this call." Because MSNBC called MA for Clinton last I checked but CNN has not.
I'm sure they each have their peeps on the ground and own agendas.
Remember the Bush Buddy at Fox who said Florida was NOT a Gore win? And then the fairy tale really began...

: One Guess In MO Is That St. Louis City (none / 0) (#44)
by MO Blue on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:34:54 PM EST

has no votes counted. Large AA community unaccounted for there.

my bad (none / 0) (#31)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:12:30 PM EST

the % was much higher in DE.

Wouldn't everyone (none / 0) (#33)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:18:56 PM EST

(and by the way, that word, "everyone" means all Democrats) just love for the MSM to have to admit they were wrong with one of these early projections or interpretations of the trends? I would love for them to have to eat crow!

: More than anything I want the MSM (5.00 / 1) (#35)
by RalphB on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:24:26 PM EST

to be absolutely humiliated. The exit polls say there is only a 6% gender gap. Does anyone believe that? Way too low to me.
Concerning MA, I can't express how glad I am that Ted Kennedy and John Kerry got their head handed to them. I'm really sick of Kennedy picking nominees.

: I would love it, too (none / 0) (#34)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:22:01 PM EST

but you know they will spin it somehow.
There's a great doc on the media and how they helped wage war for Bush. It's called, I think, NEWS WAR.
It's shameful how they shilled for Bush. Do you see any of them apologizing for it now, or do you see them helping Obama blast Hillary Clinton for her vote?

: NBC just called New Jersey (none / 0) (#36)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:27:43 PM EST

for Hillary! That was another one that the big Obama(tm) was supposed to win (via exit poll).

Latino/a vote going great for Clinton (none / 0) (#37)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:28:20 PM EST

per exit polls. A very smart Congressman I've seen several times on CNN, a guy named Meek, I think -- an African American -- points out (with passion, which is one reason I enjoy him!) that for Obama to get only 52% of Latinos/as in his home state of Illinois is a bad sign for him.

Another commentator points out, correctly, that there is no Latino/a political mindset, that it's diverse. But still, I recall so well Obama's answer in the debates that he always had overwhelming support from Latinos/as in Illinois. . . .

Cream (none / 0) (#39)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:30:53 PM EST

Meek was with Clinton when the JJ remark was made in SC, and defended Clinton, so folks who don't wanna are gonna find many reasons not to believe anything he says.

I, on the other hand, agree.

Calling AL for Obama.

I don't think it'll play well for him to be winning the aa vote like this.


Yep, I saw Meek step up for WJC (none / 0) (#48)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:41:59 PM EST

when it wasn't at all easy to do so -- and I thought, now that is a good man.

And a smart one. And as I said, I so enjoy him! He's passionate and funny . . . reminds me of your comments, which are cracking me up. I think you have a novel in you. Hmmm, the next Fannie Flagg?

Towanda! speaks: Let's see more of Congressman Meek. (And less of Bill Bennett, Carl Bernstein, and the list is long. . . .)


: well... (none / 0) (#62)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:54:57 PM EST

"I'm about as settled as I'm ever gonna be."

Okay (none / 0) (#70)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:01:54 PM EST

now I am peeved. Clinton won Arkansas by almost 50 points, and that jacka*s was harping on Obama winning IL by 30?

Give me a break.

O! M! G!

Romney got Utah! Holy Jesus on the Cross!


Holy Secret Underwear! (5.00 / 2) (#74)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:04:08 PM EST

: hahaha! (none / 0) (#84)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:07:31 PM EST

Secret underwear. OMG, that's hilarious.
Woops, Obama got ND. What's up with that?
Oh, wait, lemme see my map...
You know, Obama always wins states where he really campaigns. He's just gotta meet folks and they instantly like him better than Hillary. All these states where he's losing the popular vote (but still winning the delegates) are places he didn't have time to campaign in, what with only starting his bid for the presidency two years ago. I tell ya, give him two more years and he'd KEEEL!

I got a different interpretation (none / 0) (#133)
by NaNaBear on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:52:11 PM EST

I posted a qoute by Bendixen one of Clinton's --
Clinton's political operatives made a few weeks ago. He said " The Hispanic voter" -- and I want to say this very carefully -- has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates."

Obama said this isn't true, because Hispanics voted for me in Ill.

. At the Jan. 15 debate, before the Nevada caucuses, where the Latino vote was important, NBC's Tim Russert read the Bendixen quote and asked Clinton, "Does that represent the view of your campaign?" Her response was chilling: "No, he was making a historical statement."

We have to be careful when we scrutinize the AA vote and not others. One poster said when blacks
castthe majority of their votes for Obabma , it isn't good for Obama. I can't understand this kinda thinking.
Hilary is getting black votes too. Is it bad for Clinton when she gets most of the Hispanic votes?

BOttom Line: Why is it bad for Obama when he gets the majority black vote, but the Hispanic vote for Clinton isn't viewed the same way. Maybe am misunderstanding what some are saying.

In some areas of the country blacks and Hispanics are at odds with one another for various reasons.
The DEM Party doesn't need this if we expect to beat the REP. They can use it to divide our party. Let's not help them.(imo)


good news for HRC (I think) (none / 0) (#38)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:30:46 PM EST

there have been tornado watches in OK and Tn all day, but they still came out in droves for her. That must mean something.

So, NJ was just being called by msnbc, I believe, not to mention MA, but CNN just called AL for BO--so come on, why the hold up for good news for HRC.

yeah (none / 0) (#40)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:31:26 PM EST

Obama camp already saying that the tornadoes kept all his voters away.


excuses, excuses (none / 0) (#42)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:32:27 PM EST

and the dog peed on their homework!


Let Me See If I Got This Right (none / 0) (#69)
by MO Blue on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:00:30 PM EST

The old folks made it to the polls but the younger crowd couldn't make it.


: MO Blue (5.00 / 1) (#75)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:04:18 PM EST

I know--it's shocking.
If one more of these stupid pundits harps on the "disproportionate turn out of older white women" I am going to get a gun and go down to CNN. Who the heck do they think votes in every election?
From the Obama camp: "A candidate could lose by six points in California and still only get 16 fewer delegates"
Is that some kind of strategy? "We may lose by a lot, but we'll only lose by a little!"

It seems to me (none / 0) (#41)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:31:50 PM EST

that Wolfie is overly eager to call states for Barack.


maybe you are just (none / 0) (#43)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:33:17 PM EST

nervous about it? I do not disagree with your opinion, though it seems pretty fair to me. I mean, as fair as any of them. I'm pretty certain the anchor doesn't get to make the call.


is cnn more level tonight than msnbc? (none / 0) (#45)
by hellothere on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:35:53 PM EST

i ask because i can't bring myself to turn on the tv.


it could be just me (none / 0) (#51)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:44:29 PM EST

I tend to get overly defensive. ;)

Now we have David Gergen (who actually like, as far as Repub pundits go) saying that it's a good night for Hillary but she didn't win NY by as large a margin as Barack won IL. Do you see what I mean? Maybe I'm just being petty here.


still (none / 0) (#61)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:53:51 PM EST

I saw that just a few minutes ago and thought, "sumbit*ch! Still was right!"

I agree with you now, at least about that. By what margin did Hillary win Arkansas? Or was that only because the tornadoes scared the Obama dems away from the polls?"

And now they said, "overall, no major surprises tonight"

WTF?! ARE YOU FREAKIN' KIDDIN ME?


: They're pathetic! (none / 0) (#72)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:02:01 PM EST

The MSM makes their prognostications and then they blame the weather when it doesn't work out. Last figure I saw on AK was Hillary 71, Obama 23. Well, you know, the tornado targeted Obama supporters. It's part of Teh Evil Clinton Conspiracy.
If I could post graphics here, I'd post Nelson Muntz saying, "Haw Haw!"

Forgot to mention (none / 0) (#46)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:36:14 PM EST

Tweety pressed Menendez to say that NJ would be a "bellwether" for Hillary. Menendez wouldn't say that....but Hilalry won it anyway!

and isn't it amazing (none / 0) (#47)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:38:48 PM EST

that the MSM can talk about BO winning b/c of the AA vote, but no one else can mention it without being called a racist? I mean, let's just be honest that AA's will vote in larger margins as women will vote for HRC--it's kinda obvious. But the MSM will acts like BC's comments in SC were a watershed moment. Lets see.

Why no call for MO yet, seems like it's pretty heavily in HRC's corner...

In the spirit of unity, Go Democratic Party! let's out-number the Repubs in way that implies a mandate of change (which either of our nominees would bring).

: They should call a few states (none / 0) (#49)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:43:14 PM EST

for Obama for the same reason, but they haven't. They're trying to be conservative.

Hey. (none / 0) (#50)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:43:32 PM EST

Where'd everybody go???

Yes! (none / 0) (#53)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:46:46 PM EST

Finally CNN called MA for Hillary.

Gawd. I love it. (5.00 / 1) (#54)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:48:35 PM EST

Take that Kerry, Kennedy, Gov whatsisname.


MEH!!!! (5.00 / 1) (#60)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:52:21 PM EST

My dynasty beats your dynasty

(LOL, just using that awful dynasty meme that folks have been blasting Hillary with).


Indeed (none / 0) (#67)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:57:04 PM EST

That was so hypocritical. Kennedys are OK, Clintons not so much.

BTW, I've been reading and enjoying your posts here.


: You're sweet (none / 0) (#77)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:04:50 PM EST

I came to escape the horrors of the big orange.
I've enjoyed your posts too!

New Jersey- YES! Hil (none / 0) (#56)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:50:04 PM EST

Take that! (none / 0) (#58)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:51:54 PM EST

Anti-Hillary pundits.

I'm so proud of the Northeast.

Dare I say it? I think she'll take Cali.


hold on, now (none / 0) (#63)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:55:42 PM EST

let's not get ahead of ourselves here. California is many hours away.


I don't wanna jinx it (none / 0) (#104)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:21:05 PM EST

but I have faith in Cali.


: me, too (none / 0) (#108)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:24:11 PM EST

now, hush!

OMG, yay! (none / 0) (#57)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:50:59 PM EST

Hillary takes NJ! I always thought she would, but I'm so relieved.

I'm sure the MSM will find a way to qualify it by saying it was all the dumb, blue-collar voters.

Was she ever behind in NJ? (none / 0) (#79)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:04:59 PM EST

: I didn't think so (none / 0) (#82)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:06:32 PM EST

until I read some scary polls. But we all know how dependable polls are.

paging Mr Zogby... (none / 0) (#65)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:55:59 PM EST

does anyone have a chart we can use to compare?

Missouri looks great for Hil (none / 0) (#71)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:01:57 PM EST

so far...only 1/3 of the vote in tho...no projection yet. That would be big.

: No Votes Counted In St. Louis City Yet (none / 0) (#78)
by MO Blue on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:04:59 PM EST

Large AA community. Don't know how much that will tighten the race. Would love MO to go to Hillary.

how do you think (none / 0) (#81)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:06:04 PM EST

Kennedy and Kerry feel? Talk about embarrassing...

Why won't they call MO?

It is weird (none / 0) (#88)
by stillife on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:08:54 PM EST

b/c they just called North Dakota for Barack with similar margins.

I guess they just hold back when it's a Hillary win. Or am I being paranoid? To be charitable, I suppose it could depend on the population of the reporting precincts.


: Still (5.00 / 1) (#90)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:10:34 PM EST

I don't think you're being paranoid anymore. They are all a bunch of basta*ds.
Obama trounces Hillary in IL with 30%
Hillary ekes by in Arkansas with 50%

but they call (none / 0) (#83)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:06:46 PM EST

North Dakota (no offense) immediately?

: probably because (none / 0) (#87)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:08:41 PM EST

only six people voted. I mean, it's ND. Even National Geographic trashed them.

Question (none / 0) (#85)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:07:38 PM EST

If Obama and McCain both win:

How do you think the fact that Obama is taking red states and McCain blue states will shape up in the GE.

red/blue (5.00 / 0) (#89)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:09:37 PM EST

very impressive observation. I wasn't looking at the big picture (something teachers noted in report cards since I was six)


: LOL. (none / 0) (#98)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:17:51 PM EST

Thanks.

McCain would crush Obama (5.00 / 1) (#103)
by Virginian on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:20:59 PM EST

in a GE (by 3-4%)...not because Obama isn't a better candidate than McCain...he is...but his weaknesses are those that can be uniquely exploited by the Republicans IMO...


North Dakota for Obama (none / 0) (#86)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:07:53 PM EST

Golly gee...wonder why THAT is?

Connecticut...damn...too close to call (none / 0) (#92)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:11:13 PM EST

50/47% with 56% reporting & we're behind..

Got this from Taylor Marsh (none / 0) (#93)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:12:51 PM EST

from Clinton team:
Third Red State Called for Clinton

We're very excited that Hillary Clinton has added a third red state in her victory column.

Clinton now has scored strong victories in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arkansas.

The Obama campaign has been spinning that they have a monopoly on red states; tonight we showed they don't.

With these important victories, Hillary Clinton has demonstrated that she can compete and win in red states.

: We were posting simultaneously (none / 0) (#95)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:14:09 PM EST

looks like! Great minds and all that!

OK, Tenn, Ark for Hillary (none / 0) (#94)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:12:57 PM EST

Guess Obama isn't taking the whole south

no, not the whole south (none / 0) (#97)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:17:17 PM EST

just sweeping the black vote.

I will be interested to see if the statistics from SC play out across the nation. Not good for Obama, not good for America.


Yes. Very worrisome re (none / 0) (#107)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:22:02 PM EST

dividing the Democrats and the country.

I don't want to think about what could happen if we go to the convention without a winner and Hillary takes it on Edwards &/or super delegates...denying the nomination to Obama.

I will never forgive those bastards for drafting Obama to take out Hillary in this race.


: The old-boy network. (none / 0) (#140)
by phat on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:05:07 PM EST

Rears its ugly head.
phat

any of you smart people (none / 0) (#96)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:15:04 PM EST

know if the CA polls close at 11pm EST or PST?

Thanks!

Also, gotta give it up for Huckabee jamming playing Sweet Home Alabama with his band earlier. If anyone else saw it, do you agree that it brings home the fact that you can like someone but disagree with just about every opinion they have. As someone else pointed out, that must have been some music teacher in Hope, AK!

8PM PST/11PM EST (none / 0) (#99)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:18:14 PM EST

Re music/Hope Arkansas...something in the water there, alright.

Yes...Huckabee is VERY likeable. I thought he was amazing from the first time I saw him speak on television and it scared me spitless...he's a down-home charmer...a natural...preacher turned to politics.


: yes. you nailed it. (none / 0) (#105)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:21:13 PM EST

My CNN page (none / 0) (#111)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:26:30 PM EST

shows CA closing at 8:00pm PST


kansas for 'Bama (none / 0) (#100)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:18:43 PM EST

MSNBC calls it.

Georgia (none / 0) (#101)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:20:20 PM EST

On 63% or precincts:

C: 34.5
O: 62.5

prediction based on exit polling was C 25 O 75.

Still more votes to count...

Something we should check out (none / 0) (#102)
by jen on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:20:29 PM EST

after the primaries are over -- which states are primaries, which are caucuses and who won which.

I live in NV, and in my small, very Republican village, our caucus was swarmed with Republicans registering to participate, most of them for Obama. My friend's husband, who is a Republican, told her he was coming to caucus AGAINST Hillary, and he would never vote Dem in the GE.

I believe Idaho, Minnesota and North Dakota are all caucus states, and Obama's so far ahead. I would be curious how many Republicans caucused for Obama in those states.

If Obama wins the nomination, and those Republicans who caucused for him vote for him in the GE, plus Dems vote for him, he should theoretically win those states in unprecedented landslides. I highly doubt that will happen.

Caucuses suck.

proof that (none / 0) (#109)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:24:55 PM EST

cnn is biased, they just called "important victories" for BO in Conn. and Kansas.

But HRC is way ahead in MO, which they haven't called. And I believe it is more important in that it is a "bell-weather" state. I think they're just holding on to the tight-race/BO story for ratings, no?

I mean, anything can happen in CA, but how can they be so biased towards HRC when she seems to win a state?

Look at the TV screen and ask (none / 0) (#113)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:28:57 PM EST

yourself..."the best political team on TV" has...ummm...HOW MANY women on their panel?

Pissed me off from the minute I started watching. I'll be emailing them about THAT.


: Exactly. (none / 0) (#116)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:32:01 PM EST

All men.
I am still reeling about that remark about IL's 30%. What about AR's 50%? Hello?
Can someone who is better at math do a tally of popular vote so far? I mean, I know Obama's ND sweep is a big win, but I think there might be more people in NY, NJ and MA...

Missouri still holding for Hil (none / 0) (#110)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:25:57 PM EST

with 1/2 the votes in...

Wow. Tornado making a MESS (none / 0) (#114)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:30:37 PM EST

in Tennessee

thanks (none / 0) (#115)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:31:27 PM EST

I assumed Ca closed at 8pm EST (ergo 11 EST) but wanted to make sure.

It's still a long night folks!

ans now (none / 0) (#118)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:32:38 PM EST

Minn for BO, but Conn, has a 2% difference with 75% in, but they can't call MO? Makes NO sense!

: If the city continues its trend (none / 0) (#129)
by Virginian on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:46:42 PM EST

Obama will net gain about 29k from ST Louis...not enough to catch up to HRC, but enough to close the gap...MO will go Clinton...just a matter of time

Minnesota caucses for Obama. (none / 0) (#119)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:34:04 PM EST

Zesus...what the Hell are they thinking?

I've seen that (none / 0) (#120)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:34:12 PM EST

AZ closes at 9pm, but if the same list had CA closing at 11, then shouldn't this have closed already?

Sorry if I'm missing the obvious here :)

: Diff time zones and... (none / 0) (#122)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:36:39 PM EST

it doesn't make sense, does it? Where did you see it?

Romney running off at themouth (none / 0) (#124)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:37:29 PM EST

someone shut him up. please.

: Mute button. Bathroom break! (none / 0) (#125)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:39:26 PM EST

Other options too numerous to mention! I'm gonna make a sandwich!
FOOD! I've chewed off my fingernails and they are not very nourishing...

Tweety has been kissing a*s a bit (none / 0) (#126)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:41:58 PM EST

Wonder if he figures he'd better be nice to Hillary?

(too much to hope).

Tweety can't seem to find a middle ground (5.00 / 0) (#130)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:47:01 PM EST

He swings like a pendulum in excess.


: Tweety swings (5.00 / 0) (#131)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:50:19 PM EST

because of that ball rolling around in his head.

okay (none / 0) (#127)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:43:10 PM EST

keeping in mind that I have not balanced my checkbook since...well, okay, never...I tallied up the votes so far according to CNN, and this is what I got:

C: 3,677,807
O: 3,586,987

So, around 100K votes between them, according to this, which should not tell you anything except that I would rather do math than listen to Romney speak. Oh, and it doesn't count her wins in MI and FL, either! Haha!

Someone please feel free to check me.

thanks all (none / 0) (#132)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:51:44 PM EST

I saw AZ on CNN, but ABC news site has current numbers for all states coming in--thought I'd pass it on.

It does seem like HRC is (narrowly?) winning AZ, but the margin with Latinos was smaller than compared to the NE. I wonder what this means about CA? I can't imagine there could be such a dramatic difference when incorporating common socio-economic factors (I'm aware of the cultural differences).

Eastern Latinos not the same (none / 0) (#136)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:58:55 PM EST

as western Latinos.


: Funny (none / 0) (#139)
by Virginian on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:04:27 PM EST

neither are eastern white folks and western white folks...:-P

Staying ahead in Arizona... (none / 0) (#141)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:09:44 PM EST

Exit poll in California (none / 0) (#142)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:10:55 PM EST

"competetive"

: Eh (none / 0) (#144)
by BDB on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:15:45 PM EST

Exit polls showed Obama winning Massachusetts. So I take that with a grain of salt.

Carl Bernstein - the big story (none / 0) (#145)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:16:11 PM EST

was gonna be Hillary wrapping it up tonight...but she did well enough tonight that it gives them the kind of thing they like to run on going forward...

Arizona goes for Hillary (none / 0) (#146)
by BHLinGA on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:16:23 PM EST

Great win, I think!

Wow. Yes! Gov. Napolitano (none / 0) (#150)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:21:44 PM EST

endorsed Barack.

Guess that wasn't worth as much as they hoped.


Per MSNBC (none / 0) (#151)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:22:15 PM EST

56 delegates in AZ, as opposed to Deleware with 15 delegates.


: Biden sat on his hands... (none / 0) (#155)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:24:27 PM EST

wonder what he was saying privately to Dems...
and where their Super Delegates are likely to go?

she won big there too (none / 0) (#161)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:28:16 PM EST

not even close, and yes, a defeat for Napolitano who I don't like anyway.


Competence (none / 0) (#148)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:19:59 PM EST

does not have a skin color, I am happy to say!

That woman could do anything!

Missouri is now (none / 0) (#149)
by BHLinGA on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:20:42 PM EST

Clinton 50%
Obama 47%

I don't like the way this one has been moving the last hour.

Big cities are coming in now... (none / 0) (#152)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:22:46 PM EST

Obama winning solidly there....nailbiter...


How big of cities? (none / 0) (#156)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:25:35 PM EST

She's about 20,000 votes ahead right now.


: Big. St. Louis and ....um.... (none / 0) (#162)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:29:08 PM EST

Kansas City, Mo.

It's 87% reporting (none / 0) (#153)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:23:31 PM EST

I think she's doing all right.


that's on (none / 0) (#154)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:24:13 PM EST

almost 90% of precincts reporting, though...


This one will be close...could go (none / 0) (#157)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:26:25 PM EST

either way.


I think HRC takes MO (none / 0) (#166)
by Virginian on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:37:17 PM EST

by 2-4k


gonna be close (none / 0) (#169)
by Rojas on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:40:27 PM EST

worm has turned (none / 0) (#179)
by Rojas on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:07:55 PM EST

: Yep (none / 0) (#180)
by Virginian on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:10:59 PM EST

so much for my algebra :)

Utah. Dead heat so far (none / 0) (#159)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:27:53 PM EST

Lance Mannion nails it (none / 0) (#160)
by jen on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:27:55 PM EST

Clinton is going to lose

Big day tomorrow. Vote early, vote often.
Based on what I've been reading I predict Hillary Clinton's going to lose.
She'll probably wind up pocketing the most delegates but she's going to lose.
The Media will see to it.
It's unlikely she'll get out and out beaten across the board, but she'll still lose. She'll lose by not beating Obama across the board or she'll lose by not winning in every big state or she'll lose by not winning by a large enough margin in the states she's supposed to win or by not coming close enough in the states she's expected to lose or she'll lose by not getting the votes of the right demographic or she'll lose by not getting enough votes in the demographics that were going to vote for her anyway or she'll lose because not enough people tell the exit pollsters on their way out how excited they were to cast their vote for her.
Whatever, however.
She's going to lose.
She's going to lose because they're going to say she did and they'll say it because they want her to.
This is not sour grapes. This is the way it's been going on for fifteen years now. And those of you who think that this is a good reason not to support her, so we can get away from this, those of you who think that Obama will somehow be able, through the sheer force of his personality or the beauty of his rhetoric or the wonderfulness that is him or through the plain fact that he is not a Clinton need to consider this very real possibility:
The reason he's a media darling now is because he's not a Clinton. He gives them a way to dump on the Clintons while congratulating themselves on how cool and post-partisan they are.
If and when Hillary's beaten and Obama's the nominee he becomes the Democrat running for President.
And you watch.
If the Republican running against him is John McCain then every single move Obama makes will be the wrong one.
Everything he says will be a lie.
Every time he appears to win he will lose.
http://lancemannion.typepad.com/lance_mannion/2008/02/clinton-will-lo.html?cid=100020762#comment-100 020762

: dang (5.00 / 1) (#164)
by Kathy on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:34:25 PM EST

too frackin' true.

John McCain's mother standing (none / 0) (#170)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:41:21 PM EST

at 92!...with our old pal Joe Lieberman.

McCain reading sing-song from the teleprompter...it really shows. So different a cadence from when he speaks....pretty good content...

Cutting off McCain to switch to "O" (none / 0) (#172)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:44:16 PM EST

mute button now (none / 0) (#174)
by RalphB on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:52:12 PM EST

it's a good speech (none / 0) (#176)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:58:24 PM EST

remembers victims in Tenn and arkansas..congrats Hillary on her victories tonight...and then on to his stump speech. very classy


: she did the same (none / 0) (#185)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:39:18 PM EST

an hour before he did -- opened with regret for storm victims and congratulated him. No points there.

Colorado for Obama. ugh. (none / 0) (#173)
by oldpro on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:46:57 PM EST

...the wild west....saddle up, folks...this is going to be a fight.

Anyone know (none / 0) (#175)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:55:32 PM EST

how the delegate are awarded in Missouri? Hillary won most of the counties, but St. Louis is going to give Obama the win, I'm afraid.

delegates should be even then? (none / 0) (#177)
by byteb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:59:10 PM EST

It's all about the precincts (none / 0) (#178)
by BHLinGA on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:05:27 PM EST

It depends on precincts I think - according to somebody - John Roberts maybe? There are more precincts in the cities because of the denser population. So, even though Hillary has won the majority of the counties and the popular vote is so close, Obama could end up with more delegates.


: Right, PRECINCTS, thank you. (none / 0) (#183)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:26:43 PM EST

I'm tired.

ABC just called California (none / 0) (#181)
by g8grl on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:15:29 PM EST

for Hillary!!! Yes!!!

Amazing that they are calling it so (none / 0) (#182)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:22:28 PM EST

quickly. Must not be that close.


: might be a mistake (none / 0) (#184)
by g8grl on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 11:38:12 PM EST

to make the call so early before they've counted Berkeley and Palo Alto. Supposedly huge turnout at Stanford and UCB.