Mississippi Unburning

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 04:58:00 PM EST
Tags: Mississippi '08 (all tags)

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Voters didn't flock to the polls in Mississippi today. The Mississippi Secretary of State's Office says turnout was "light to moderate."

Some facts about Mississippi voters and today's primary:

Mississippi hasn't voted for a Democratic president in 32 years.
Republicans and Independents can vote in the Democratic primary.
Mississippi has the largest African-American population (36%) of any state. 70% of registered Democrats are African American.
Those numbers appear to benefit Obama, who's overwhelmingly won the African-American vote so far this primary season.
There are 40 delegates up for grabs, including 7 superdelegates.

CNN election results will be here.

< The Reasonable Obama Supporters Of Mississippi | Obama Wins MS >

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Mississippi Unburning | 51 comments (51 topical)

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And yet----- (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by kenosharick on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:04:37 PM EST

it will be portrayed as a gigantic victory/comeback for Obama!!! even if the delegate count is nearly even(what MSNBC kept hyping after Ohio/Texas) they will focus on vote totals. I can barely watch olberman anymore,and I was a huge fan.

Just like they did in Texas (none / 0) (#6)
by JJE on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:06:58 PM EST

HUGE comeback for Clinton, even though Obama likely won more delegates. The press likes the see-saw narrative.

Parent

Well (none / 0) (#9)
by Marvin42 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:09:46 PM EST

She did win the popular vote, and she did happen to win 2 other states, but let's ignore that detail.

Parent

Why don't you try reading the comments (none / 0) (#15)
by JJE on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:17:16 PM EST

And thinking about them before you hit "Post"? The point is that the media ignores delegate counts and only looks at percentages. And here you are doing the same thing both kenosharick and I, who disagree on which candidate we support, are criticizing the media for.

Parent

Wow (none / 0) (#26)
by Marvin42 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:25:25 PM EST

Thanks for being offensive for no reason. I misunderstood, I apologize.

Parent

Sorry (none / 0) (#30)
by JJE on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:27:52 PM EST

I didn't mean to offend. "let's just forget that detail" sounded like snark, so I responded snarkily. Probably too much so. Apologies.

Parent

: Let's Pretend it Never happened (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by Marvin42 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:31:24 PM EST

I was being snarky, but I was wrong, I didn't read it right.
I'll go up my meds now.

Parent

Actually- the press in America (none / 0) (#57)
by kenosharick on Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 10:58:24 AM EST

downplayed Hillary's wins and kept harping on how it would barely affect the delegate count. I do not know what coutry's press you(JJE) are watchng.

Parent

Mississippi chances for voting for Democrat's in (5.00 / 2) (#19)
by DemBillC on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:18:07 PM EST

te General Election s about 0%. Of course these are the states that Obama does very well in as there is a long time deep Clinton hatred spread by republicans.

not really (none / 0) (#20)
by CST on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:19:37 PM EST

Hillary is winning the republican vote here. Although I agree about the 0% thing.

Parent

Sadly, some of those are anti-Obama votes (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:25:17 PM EST

not pro-Hillary I would think.

Parent

I would think you are right (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by CST on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:27:17 PM EST

I have a feeling race-relations may play a part as well. (Don't kill me for that, it is Mississippi and I am a snobby northeast liberal, we all have our prejudices)

Parent

: That's ok. I'm in Tennessee so I've seen it (none / 0) (#33)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:28:40 PM EST

first hand. It is getting better though.

Parent

i disagree (none / 0) (#54)
by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:26:06 PM EST

i think clinton is viewed favorably by most here because of the economy. i don't really see a lot of whites going to vote against obama due to race. just don't see it. there are too many positive reasons to vote for clinton.

Parent

Have they called it (5.00 / 2) (#31)
by jen on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:28:06 PM EST

for Obama, yet? ;-)

70% of democrats? (5.00 / 1) (#35)
by jcsf on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:31:22 PM EST

That can't be right, can it?

Shows how truly decimated (none / 0) (#38)
by RalphB on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:35:17 PM EST

the Democratic party is in the south. Doesn't it. Assuming the 70% figure is accurate and I don't doubt it.

Parent

: And Obama is just the guy to bring it back! (none / 0) (#40)
by JJE on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:41:41 PM EST

/kos diarist

Parent

Light to Moderate? (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by facta non verba on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:31:51 PM EST

Not quite sure what that means. Here to date, only in New Hampshire has over 50% of eligible voters voted (52.5%). In Ohio and California, the turnout exceeded 40% but barely, 40.5% and 40.0%. Geez who won those states.

The caucus are far worse. The best showing so far is in Iowa where 16.5%. All of the other caucus contests are under 10% turnout. The worst showing was Alaska with a 1% turnout. And we are talking record turnouts here.

As a matter of comparison, in the Spanish election held on Sunday, the turnout was 75%.

This brings me to my other point. Everywhere else in the world, they vote on Sundays. You think that might make a difference?

: What will it take? (5.00 / 2) (#39)
by jcsf on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:41:11 PM EST

To have weekend elections?
At both state, and national levels?
There is no excuse, not to have this.

Parent

A few odd points... (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by OrangeFur on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:47:10 PM EST

... the CNN article linked above mentions that turnout in 1988 was in excess of 300,000, compared with about 150,000 expected today. Why was that?

The CNN article also mentioned the large black population and notes that Jesse Jackson took 45% of the vote there in 1988. Noted without further comment.

Gosh (none / 0) (#2)
by Steve M on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:02:31 PM EST

if 70% of registered Democrats are black, I find it hard to see how Clinton will finish within 30 points, let alone 20.

Gersh indeed. (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by sarcastic unnamed one on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:06:45 PM EST

If she's w/in even 50 points I'd say it's tantamount to a mandate.

Parent

There is no party registration (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:06:36 PM EST

in MS. I do not know where that data is coming from.

Parent

multiple news sources (none / 0) (#17)
by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:17:36 PM EST

Go figure. UPI also refers to registered dems:

The Friday poll gave Obama an even stronger advantage among registered Democrats in the state with 66 percent compared to Clinton's 31 percent. However, Clinton leads by 13 points among independents and Republicans, who are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary.

Wall St. Journal:

He holds an even stronger advantage, 66%-31%, among registered Democrats in the state, while Sen. Clinton leads by 13 points among independents and Republicans.

Parent

: I looked it up at the MS Dem Party site (none / 0) (#32)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:28:24 PM EST

No party registration.

Parent

Party identification is quite nebulous there (none / 0) (#7)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:07:09 PM EST

Parent

Don't worry. (none / 0) (#8)
by sweetthings on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:08:35 PM EST

For once, the math works in Clinton's favor.

Mississippi has been so gerrymandered over the years that Obama could win by large margins and still only pick up a delegate or two.

Parent

: Delegates vs. Popular Vote (none / 0) (#46)
by sar75 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:21:20 PM EST

Yes, but Obama will pad his popular vote margin here somewhat. And at this point, that may be more important than pledged delegates. It's still almost impossible to see how Clinton catches up with him in pledged delegates. The popular vote will - if it is in her favor - be her best argument to superdelegates.

Parent

Are we sensing ... (none / 0) (#10)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:12:07 PM EST

some disillusionment in the African American community toward Obama?

Wasn't African American turnout (raw total) lower in TX than expected?

If turnout is moderate or light (including African Americans) could this be something worthy of note even if it doesn't affect the percentages Obama is getting?

It may be disillusionment with this country (5.00 / 3) (#22)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:20:20 PM EST

so I won't gloat, no matter what. Not that long ago, a concern in the community of color was that a vote for Obama would be wasted because he could not get sufficient white votes to win.

So among millions of Mississippians, there will be many reasons for what they do today. I, for one, hope they all vote with hope -- hope for a better future, no matter which candidate that means for them.

The state and especially the coast has been through hell, and much of it not of their making.

Parent

I wouldn't call it that (none / 0) (#13)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:13:35 PM EST

I think what we are seeing is the forgiving spirit that many minorities have combined with usual voter apathy.

For a democracy, we have an appalling lack of participation in the process.

Parent

But that's kind of my point ... (none / 0) (#16)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:17:18 PM EST

if African Americans are becoming more apathetic as the contest continues does that say anything new about the Obama candidacy?

Parent

You could have a point (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:23:12 PM EST

Though, let's keep in mind, too, that Miss doesn't really make it easy for folks to vote, either. There is a loooong history of disenfranchisement.

Parent

: True ... (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:26:44 PM EST

Too true.

Parent

Didn't (none / 0) (#41)
by OldCoastie on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:43:45 PM EST

LA have a disappointing turnout also?

seems odd.

Parent

: Yes. (none / 0) (#47)
by Kathy on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:21:23 PM EST

The federal government failed that region looong before Katrina hit. Why should they vote when they have routinely been screwed?

Parent
: Katrina voters (none / 0) (#55)
by auntmo on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:59:09 PM EST

Actually, here in Texas, there was an assumption Obama's AA vote would increase due to the AA's moved to Houston and other areas after Katrina.
Didn't pan out. They didn't vote.
Why is for others to surmise.

Parent

May we anticipate live-blogging? (none / 0) (#11)
by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:12:09 PM EST

Nope, we decided (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:19:42 PM EST

not to.

Pennsylvania is next on my agenda.

Parent

: I'm thinking that, w/the media (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:22:40 PM EST

waiting outside Spitzer's door, those talking heads won't be providing enough fodder for a live blog. Am I right?

Parent

No (none / 0) (#12)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:13:35 PM EST

Parent

For one whole minute? :) (none / 0) (#14)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:15:18 PM EST

Parent

: I guess the preview last night will (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:17:44 PM EST

have to suffice. All those stats.

Parent
: Heh. (5.00 / 3) (#34)
by OrangeFur on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 05:30:30 PM EST

1 minute after polls close: "Everyone projects that Obama wins by a large margin."
30 minutes: Hold on, Hillary Clinton might break 35%.
60 minutes: Maybe not. Maybe 30%.
Let's just say I don't have high expectations.

Parent

When do the polls close? (none / 0) (#43)
by Lil on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:03:28 PM EST

Let's hope the Big Dawg just (none / 0) (#49)
by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:28:23 PM EST

smiles when no one is watching him.

The kitchen sink (none / 0) (#51)
by chemoelectric on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:32:50 PM EST

Depressed turnout is a chief goal of negative campaigning.

Hillary Clinton actually has as a goal, that is, to make Democratic voters unenthusiastic and inclined to stay home. It's not a primary goal, presumably--it's rather for personal gain. But if I were a supporter of hers I would have dumped her long, long ago. It took much less for me to dump John Edwards (for BT's guy, Chris Dodd); at least I don't feel ashamed for having supported John Edwards (like I do now feel ashamed about supporting Geraldine Ferraro).

Wow (none / 0) (#52)
by Steve M on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:34:58 PM EST

Chris Dodd was far more harsh and negative in this primary than John Edwards ever was.

Parent

: bit backward of chemo :-) (none / 0) (#53)
by RalphB on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:10:41 PM EST

Parent

Huge turnout. (none / 0) (#56)
by Addison on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:36:24 PM EST

Voters didn't flock to the polls in Mississippi today. The Mississippi Secretary of State's Office says turnout was "light to moderate."

Wrong again. Huge turnout.

Mississippi Unburning | 51 comments (51 topical)

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