Tag: Pennsylvania '08 (page 2)

Philadelphia "Street Money" As an Issue in Primary Race

Philadelphia apparently has a custom of paying local ward leaders and locals to get out the vote. Obama organizers say he won't do it.

Obama's posture confounds neighborhood political leaders sympathetic to his cause. They caution that if the senator from Illinois withholds money that gubernatorial, mayoral and presidential candidates have willingly paid out for decades, there could be defections to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. And the Clinton campaign, in contrast, will oblige in forking over the money, these ward leaders predict.

"We've heard directly from the Obama organizer who organizes our ward, and he told us it's an entirely volunteer organization and that I should not expect to see anything from the Obama campaign other than ads on TV and the support that volunteers are giving us," said Greg Paulmier, a ward leader in the northwest part of the city.

The Clinton campaign hasn't said whether it will follow the custom, which again, is legal.[More...]

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Insider Advantage PA Poll: Hillary Up By 10

The New Insider Advantage PA poll out today (results here , pdf) has Hillary at 48 and Obama at 38. It concludes she is gaining ground.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Sen. Clinton has made progress among both men and among all white voters. Her support among women also appears to be consolidating.

“My guess is that whatever damage she might have sustained by recent gaffs and media missteps have been largely discounted by the public. The race in Pennsylvania is clearly still fluid. But, at least for now, it’s tending back towards the result that was originally anticipated by most – a Clinton lead.

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New PA Poll: Hillary Ahead by 11 Points

A new PA poll by Muhlenberg College and the Morning Call show Hillary ahead by 11 points. Full poll results are here.

Key findings:

1. With the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary under three weeks away, Senator Hillary Clinton maintains a double digit lead over Senator Obama in the Democratic race.

2. Democratic voters in the Keystone State were most likely to rank the economy as the key issue in terms of their vote in the Democratic Primary, with the Iraq War and health care also prominently mentioned.

3. Pennsylvania Democrats have generally favorable views of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. However, Obama receives a larger percentage of unfavorable ratings than Clinton among likely voters in the state.

4. Keystone State Democrats are evenly divided on which of their candidates is more likely to beat John McCain in the general election.

5. Democratic voters in the Commonwealth are more likely to want Hillary Clinton to choose Barack Obama as her running mate than they are to support Obama choosing Clinton as his Vice President.

6. A majority of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania do not believe Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race if she loses the Pennsylvania Primary.


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Obama Starts Ad Blitz in Pennsylvania

Barack Obama has begun an ad blitz in Pennsylvania, trying to overcome Hillary Clinton's substantial poll lead in the state.

With 31 days until the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Sen. Barack Obama yesterday began airing the first pre-primary ads on Philadelphia TV stations. According to public records, the campaign spent about $330,000 on 30- and 60-second spots that will run on six area stations through Monday, the state deadline for voter registration.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, with a double-digit lead in state polls, has yet to hit local airwaves in the run-up to the April 22 primary. A total of 158 Democratic delegates are in play.

Obama has more money to spend than Hillary. Her campaign says his ads are misrepresenting the facts.

"Itís unfortunate that Barack Obama continues to talk about his leadership on ethics but doesnít have much action to back it up. Senator Obamaís campaign still refuses to honor requests to disclose his tax and state records, and answer questions on inconsistencies with Tony Rezko. Itís a continuing pattern of words with no action.

"Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has literally criss-crossed the state talking with the people of Pennsylvania about the issues that matter to them and what they're concerned about is results, not rhetoric. They're not interested in which candidate spends the most money. They want to know which candidate is best prepared to beat John McCain in November, create good, new jobs and provide everyone with healthcare. That candidate is Hillary Clinton."

Donations would help her.

Obama is also ratcheting up his effort to register Republicans and Independents as Democrats to vote in the primary. Of course, he's not calling it "Be a Dem for a Day" -- he calls it an effort to "expand the party." He has volunteers going house to house.

Voting registration for the Dem. primary in PA ends Monday.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Hillary Gains in Pennsylvania

A Quinnipiac poll out today shows Hillary Clinton has expanded her lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania over the past three weeks.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, she now has a 12 point lead, 53 to 41%. On Feb. 27, she led Obama 49% to 43%.

Hillary increased her lead among women while narrowing Obama's lead among men. The numbers:

  • White voters go with Clinton 61 - 33 percent, compared to 56 - 37 percent February 27.
  • Black voters back Obama 76 - 18 percent, compared to 69 - 23 percent February 27.
  • Women back Clinton 59 - 35 percent.
  • Men go 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent for Clinton, compared to February 27 when men backed him 50 - 43 percent.
  • Obama gets 50 percent of Democrats with a college degree, to Clinton's 45 percent.
  • Among voters with no college degree, Clinton leads 57 - 37 percent.
  • Voters under 45 back Obama 57 - 39 percent while voters over 45 back Clinton 60 - 34 percent.

Quinnipiac says the momentum is with Hillary. As to race: [More...]

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Rep. John Murtha Endorses Hillary Clinton

Via the Washington Post:

Rep. John P. Murtha has announced his endorsement of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, bringing his clout as a 17-term member of the House and a prominent anti-war Democrat to bear with more than a month until the primary here in his home state.

“Sen. Clinton is the candidate that will forge a consensus on health care, education, the economy, and the war in Iraq,” Murtha wrote in a statement about his decision.

As to what convinced him:

“Her experience and careful consideration of these issues convinced me that she is best qualified to lead our nation and to bring credibility back to the White House,” Murtha said. He said he “whole-heartedly” recommends Clinton to all voters in his state.

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Obama Pitches Independents and Repubs to Register as Dems in PA

Remember Dems for a Day? Here's the new ad that went up on Barack Obama's website yesterday, telling voters if they are Indpendents or Republicans they must register as Dems by March 24.

Salon has more on the Obama's very orchestrated and intentional campaign to have Republicans and Indpendents register as Dems so he can be our party's nominee. [More...]

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Rasmussen: Hillary Leads in PA, 51% to 38%

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 51% to 38%.

Clinton now leads by twenty-five percentage points among women and is essentially even among men. She attracts votes from 69% of white women while also leading among voters over 40 and those with incomes under $75,000 a year. Obama leads 79% to 13% among African-American voters.

Also yesterday, Rasmussen did a PA poll that showed McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant margin against both Obama and Hillary. But,

In Pennsylvania, McCain leads both Democrats by double digits among men and trails both by double digits among women. The gap is wider if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of voters in the state, Obama by 53%, and Clinton by 45%. For Obama, that figure reflects a ten-point decline from last month. In that previous poll, conducted at the height of Obamamania, the Senator from Illinois had a ten-point lead over McCain.


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Ten Key States Update and a Perspective on Pennsylvania

In 2004, the Democratic ticket carried 20 states with 252 electoral votes. Obviously, it wasn't enough. What other states are most likely to play a role in 2008? Which of the Democratic candidates would be the Party's most successful candidate in the general election?

William Arnone, a long-time Democratic Party activist who worked with Robert F. Kennedy in 1967-68 has updated his July, 2007 and February, 2008 analysis (reprinted here) of "Key States in the 2008 Presidential Election."

The ten states are: Arkansas; Colorado; Florida; Iowa; Missouri; Nevada; New Mexico; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia.

With his permission, I reprint below his newest analysis, received yesterday, which also includes a thorough discussion of whether the Dems will keep Pennsylvania:

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Quinnepac PA Poll: Obama Gains But Clinton Still Ahead by Six

A new Quinnepac poll on Pennsylvania is out. It shows Barack Obama cutting into Hillary Clinton's lead there, but she's still ahead, 49 to 43%.

The increase for Obama is attributed to the youth vote.

This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 - 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 - 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points.

The other numbers show:

Among likely Democratic primary voters, women back Clinton 53 - 39 percent, while men back Obama 50 - 43 percent; white voters go with Clinton 56 - 37 percent while black voters support Obama 69 - 23 percent. Democrats with a college degree favor Obama 53 - 41 percent, while voters without a degree back Clinton 52 - 39 percent.


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