More on the Indiana Poll Showing Hillary Up by 16

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:34:16 PM EST
Tags: Indiana '08, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

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Earlier, Big Tent Democrat wrote about the SUSA Indiana poll taken 4/11 to 4/13. Some additional notes (Full Poll Results here):

Of the 1,600 polled, only 571 were likely Democratic voters. Of those who identified themselves as Democrats.

Among the Democrats, 60% preferred Clinton to 37% who preferred Obama. Among Republicans, it was almost the reverse.

Among the age groups, Hillary had the 18 to 34 group by 49%, Obama was at 43%. As to the African American vote, Hillary had 23% to Obama's 72%.

More...

Hillary was way ahead of Obama with both the pro-choice voters and the pro-life voters. She also got 58% of self-identified liberals.

The number of Republicans weighing in should be evident from the top concerns: Terrorism, Health Care, Immigration. My conclusion: If this poll had just been of likely Democratic primary voters, Obama would have been trounced worse.

1,600 state of Indiana adults were interviewed 04/11/08 through 04/13/08. All interviews were completed before the Democratic candidates appeared in a "compassion forum" the evening of 04/13/08. Of the adults, 1,386 were registered to vote. Of them, 571 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/06/08 Indiana Democratic Primary.

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More on the Indiana Poll Showing Hillary Up by 16 | 55 comments (55 topical)

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She seems to be regaining (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:38:02 PM EST

some of the aa vote. Not much, of course, but it makes me feel a tad relieved to see even that measly small percent.

Clinton definitely seems to have more across the board support.

I'll Believe That When I See It (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:54:09 PM EST

I think AAs tend to break his way, just as non-black women tend to break hers. They flirt with the other candidate, but come home in the end.


That's why I'm not getting my hopes up. (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by psychodrew on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:28:31 PM EST

I have trouble believing she'll do that well among African Americans.


: well, I am only hopeful (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:35:38 PM EST

when it comes to Clinton. I promise I am much more pragmatic in my normal life.

Looks like she's also (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by cmugirl on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:41:27 PM EST

picking up the "youth" vote. That could be good news.

: She had never really lost it. (5.00 / 3) (#3)
by rooge04 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:48:16 PM EST

For all the talk of Obama getting the youth vote, there are LOTS of young people---especially women---that are behind her. I'm one of them. If he had the entire swath of the youth vote as is often claimed, he'd have won long ago.

: She did well with the youth vote before (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:53:43 PM EST

California and Massachussetts come to mind. Another media myth in large part...

What does Hillary need to get ahead in Pop vote? (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by blogtopus on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:55:29 PM EST

Been looking on this site for Teh Math and can't find it.

A Fun New Game Everyone Can Play (5.00 / 2) (#9)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:00:21 PM EST

Jay Cost's popular vote spreadsheet. Change around turnout, change around margins and see where the popular vote ends up.

Warning: This game is addictive. Play at your own risk.


Indeed (none / 0) (#10)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:02:05 PM EST

Did you see? (none / 0) (#11)
by cmugirl on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:10:51 PM EST

THey have a cell for the number of "Kerry votes"! :)


That's To Estimate Turnout (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:13:31 PM EST

Basically, Cost looked at how many of those who voted for Kerry have been turning out in the democratic primary. In closed primaries, it's been about 63% and in open ones it's been about 82%. Now, if you think as I do, that turnout in some of these later states is likely to be higher because of the intense focus and voter excitement, you can change the numbers. IIRC, Texas had something like 90% turnout.


That is neat. I'm excluding MI but including (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by Teresa on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:27:29 PM EST

FL and caucuses in my guesses and she can easily catch him in popular vote. As a Super D, how can you just pretend FL didn't exist even if their delegates don't count?


Though, I don't believe for one minute (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by Teresa on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:29:36 PM EST

that they will consider popular vote if Obama leads in delegates and you know he will. They are too scared to do it.


Modifier/qualifier alert (5.00 / 2) (#21)
by Cream City on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:43:21 PM EST

It's probable he will lead in delegates -- but there are a lot of super-delegates still out, who are the ones who must be betwixt and even more between now.

If she does well in several state primaries to narrow the lead in pledged delegates, if more problems emerge for Obama, etc., it's possible that super-delegates still uncommitted (or switching, but that's more doubtful) could give here a lead.

I.e., it's arithmetically feasible, thus the adverbial modifier . . . before this thread gets done in by others doubting it's even possible.


: I meant the non-Super Delegates. She can't (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by Teresa on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:49:51 PM EST

catch up there without a real disaster for Obama, can she? I just don't think the SD's will have enough guts to do it even if Obama limps to the end. They should but I'll fall over in shock if they do the way they are trying to get her to drop out even now.

It's what I've been saying for weeks (5.00 / 2) (#22)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:46:38 PM EST

Consider what happens if she wins huge in PR. That seems to me the wild card in this race.

In any even, FL will have to be dealt with. No two ways about it.


Texas (none / 0) (#23)
by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:49:33 PM EST

It was like 99.5% of the Kerry vote. It was insane.


Texas (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:54:35 PM EST

Kerry 2004 votes = 2,832,704
All 2008 Dem Primary votes = 2,868,454

So it was actually greater than 100%!


: We did not like Kerry in Texas :-) (none / 0) (#47)
by RalphB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:30:15 PM EST

my friends in Indania and Pennslyvania (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by drewohio1 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:13:48 PM EST

will vote Clinton by a huge huge margin. Clinton by 30+ in Indiana and by 30+ in Pennslyvania.

: you must have a lot of friends... (5.00 / 3) (#14)
by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:23:26 PM EST

My Gut Predictions. Hilary will be the nominee (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by Saul on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:51:12 PM EST

I will go out on a limb here. I have always had good luck trusting my gut instincts. As I watch the contest go down to the finish line, every day we learn more and more about Obama. Recently there is something in the wind that tells my gut instincts that if Obama becomes the nominee he could not honestly win the GE. I see a lot of Obmas's luster diminished as compared to how it was when he began his campaign. I think as time goes on this will become more evident. The Wright incident, his wife's remarks, and this current bitter fiasco all will have a negative effect in the GE. First impressions on controversial issues are hard to shake off no matter how you try to explain them off. Moreover no telling what we will learn on from the Reziko trial that involves Obama. I do not agree with everything that Hilary has done or said in this campaign, however I feel that Hilary can be a better candidate to win the GE. She will do better in winning those critical states. The GE is all about electoral votes. If you can't win the big states all the charisma in the world won't help you. The super delegates just might have to choose down the line on who really is more electable. However in order to avoid a complete meltdown in the party if the super delegates choose this line of thinking you must have a dream ticket scenario. The only way you can appeased the Obama voters from not abandoning the GE if the super delegates go down this critical path will be if Obama is the VP. Might not be what Obama supporter want but it's better than nothing. I feel that a unifying dream ticket will eventually occur. It is the only SURE way to get the maximum number of democrats to come out to vote in the GE. If both of them are not on the ticket you probably will only have a 50 50 chance against McCain.

: Your gut feeling is what I hope will (5.00 / 1) (#35)
by hairspray on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:14:40 PM EST

happen. Hillary takes all of the big states by large margins and keeps the purple/red states within the margin of error. That way the SD's would have to look at the electability factor.

Ought to help in Indiana too (5.00 / 2) (#27)
by ruffian on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:11:44 PM EST

a tad OT, but here is her new ad in PA. I love that the quoted part left out the 'bitter' and stressed the 'cling'. Really hit the nail on the head.

HRC: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.
Anncr: Barack Obama said that people in small towns "cling to guns or religion...as a way to explain their frustrations..."
Woman 1: I was very insulted by Barack Obama.
Man 1: It just shows how out of touch Barack Obama is.
Woman 2: I'm not clinging to my faith out of frustration and
bitterness. I find that my faith is very uplifting.
Man 2: The good people of Pennsylvania deserve a lot better than what Barack Obama said.
Woman 1: Hillary does understand the citizens of Pennsylvania better.
Woman 3: Hillary Clinton has been fighting for people like us her whole life.

Watch the ad (none / 0) (#29)
by Grey on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:27:18 PM EST

Here.

She beat him to the punch, because I think he needed to run this kind of man-on-the-street ad to counter the remarks he made on Friday. Now, if he does run it, it'll look defensive.


fearful of obama (none / 0) (#31)
by mscristine on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:51:34 PM EST

Great blog in politco from one of those SF elites fearful of Obama:
http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/blog_view.cfm?id=8C4D6A0E323650B3A6376EFE0D493A23&comco unt=0


: "Oh, yeah, and John" (none / 0) (#32)
by esmense on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:59:58 PM EST

I'm glad to see I'm not the only liberal in America to have noted and been offended by that Obama gaffe. In some ways it was more offensive, and revealing, than Obama's dismissal of Clinton in the NH debate.

: is there a link (none / 0) (#33)
by white n az on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:02:11 PM EST

that doesn't require a login account?

I Thought It Lame (none / 0) (#36)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:20:36 PM EST

But I suspect I'm not the target audience. And I suspect neither are the voters in Pennsylvania and will be surprised if it runs very much there.

I think the target is the Super Delegates. I suspect Clinton is making a point about how easy Obama is to attack and she's not even hitting him that hard. She's focused almost exclusively on the least offensive part of his remarks, those about god and guns, ignoring the fact he essentially called Pennsylvanians bitter racist xenophobes. I don't think that's a coincidence. Focusing on the worst of what he said is potentially too damaging to him. Here, she's hitting him, but not hammering him like the GOP will do. In addition to providing a little preview of what's in store for Obama if he's the nominee, she can also point to his inability to deal effectively with it so far. That he hasn't been able to put the matter to rest.

At least I hope that's what she's doing because, like I said, the ad itself is L-A-M-E.


what kind of ad would you like? (none / 0) (#38)
by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:24:34 PM EST

I remember how many people here thought the 3 a.m. ad was lame and devastating for Hillary but then it ended up moving undecideds in her direction.

Maybe the more that people on the blogs think something is lame the better it will work with the voters.


I Thought The 3 A.M. Ad Was Effective (none / 0) (#39)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:31:34 PM EST

Because it was an emotional appeal related to one of her strengths.

Personally, I'd prefer no ads at all on this or one that hits him and then pivots to focus on Hillary and her policies. This one can basically be summed up as "Obama sucks, HIllary doesn't." Not very effective, IMO.

But then, as I said, I don't think I'm in her target audience. This ad is about demonstrating how easy it would be to hit Obama, not about actually hitting him all that hard. If she were going to hit him really hard, she'd put the entire quote on the screen.


But, of Course, the Obama Fans Will Scream Anyway (none / 0) (#40)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:34:01 PM EST

They always do. Clinton has pulled a lot of punches in this race, IMO, not putting up his entire quote in the ad is one of them, but she's still negative and out to destroy the party.


And of Course, They Will Scream Because (5.00 / 1) (#48)
by Cream City on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:32:45 PM EST

the Obama Roolz also require that Clinton is not allowed to do any campaign commercials or ads of any sort, and they certainly ought not mention that (a) she is running against a guy named Obama and/or (b) she thinks she is the better candidate so (c) vote for her.

And she especially is not allowed to run commercials in Florida, although she didn't, and he did, but therefore she must have done so, too.

It's all in the Obama Roolz.


ot but kinda funny (none / 0) (#52)
by TheRefugee on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:09:29 AM EST

Every time you write Obama Roolz I see the end of Billy Madison. The whole movie this family of jerks torments Billy on his trek back through school..and finish each one of their pranks with "O'Doyle rules!" At the end of the movie all the kids are in the car yelling "O'Doyle rules, O'Doyle rules!" And then the car drives off a cliff and explodes.


here is the link (none / 0) (#53)
by TheRefugee on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:13:02 AM EST

O'Doyle Rules


: lemme know if you see the correlation. n/t (none / 0) (#54)
by TheRefugee on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:13:57 AM EST

How about this... (none / 0) (#41)
by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:39:27 PM EST

the purpose of the ad is simply to keep the story going without causing too much outrage or damage from the ad itself.

The discussion about the ad alone keeps the story of the clinging swirling.

Just like at the Faith forum yesterday, I truly believe that Clinton tries to be boring on purpose sometimes. I play a lot of poker and I know how sometimes you can set things up for later hands by acting in unpredictable ways earlier on. Fold and look weak, overbet, bet too little, etc. Remember the experience levels of the Clinton machine, especially now that Penn is not the strategist. I am going to believe they know what they're doing.

The debate tommorrow should be VERY interesting.


Tomorrow or Wednesday? (none / 0) (#42)
by Teresa on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:40:16 PM EST

: Oh yea ;) (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:42:32 PM EST

: Wednesday (5.00 / 1) (#44)
by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:42:59 PM EST

He's got robocalls explaining his (none / 0) (#37)
by MarkL on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:20:54 PM EST

remarks to the dumb rubes.
I'm sure that will go over well.


: what do the robocalls say? (none / 0) (#46)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:07:07 PM EST

I just think he needs to hush up about this thing because he's giving it legs now. He's pretty much ensuring that's the first question he'll get during the debate. Someone said the debate was tomorrow--I know it's Wednesday, but I'm sure his debate prep is tomorrow. We'll see how good he's prepped if the answer to the question is better this time around. God knows he's spun it enough times for it to shine like a penny by now.
The thing that Clinton excels at in debates, and that always tanks Obama, is she lets stuff go. I know she gets into policy stuff and pushes her point, but the personal stuff, the attacks, the areas where she could come off really bad if she fought back, is like water off a ducks back. I guess it's from all those hours spent in a duck blind with her six shooter? Anyway, O just can't let stuff go, and I think his ego will get in the way of answering that question yet again.

Wow (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by facta non verba on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:24:09 PM EST

I am simply stunned by this margin. I find hard it to believe but I hope it is accurate. Indiana is Obama's tiebreaker.

I just got back from a reception and I met a Floridian lesbian 50ish from Tampa. We talked and chatted about politics: she likes Charlie Crist, is pulling for Clinton but will support McCain because she thinks Obama is too "green" and she can't believe that Floridians are being disenfranchised but largely blames the state legislature for that.

Did you remind her that the Florida (none / 0) (#34)
by hairspray on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:12:06 PM EST

legislature is Republican and was responsible for this fiasco?


Sorry (5.00 / 1) (#49)
by facta non verba on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:41:53 PM EST

she actually said GOP-controlled legislature. Her comments on Charlie Crist confirmed my suspicion that he is THE rising star of the GOP and I would not be surprised that come 2012 he will be their Presidential candidate.


: I Would Not Be Surprised (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:35:19 PM EST

If he's McCain's running mate.

really interesting poll results (none / 0) (#6)
by kempis on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:55:01 PM EST

BTD: If the poll had been limited to "likely Democratic primary voters, Obama would have been trounced worse."

***Isn't that amazing? And how well is Obama's support among Republicans and Independents in Indiana, PA, Michigan, and elsewhere going to hold up as "bittergate" percolates?

Will those Republicans (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by abfabdem on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:36:55 PM EST

vote for him in the GE or are they just doing it in the primary?


that was me, not BTD (none / 0) (#8)
by Jeralyn on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:55:30 PM EST

: OOPS (none / 0) (#55)
by kempis on Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 07:38:09 AM EST

Sorry about that. Senior moment. :)
I appreciate both of your work, so it's sort of like confusing Ben and Jerry. ;) But I do apologize for the error.

is Indiana closed primary? (none / 0) (#16)
by Josey on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:27:42 PM EST

It's open. (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by Teresa on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:31:08 PM EST

damn (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by sas on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:56:08 PM EST

: Don't be so sure (none / 0) (#51)
by Marvin42 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:51:50 PM EST

Its a bad thing. Anecdotally I know quite a few republicans (and a lot of them elder women) who are switching to vote for Hillary. And shockingly almost all of them WILL vote for her if she is the nominee (or McCain if its Obama).