Why SUSA Provides the Most Helpful Polling

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:40:15 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Why do most bloggers who follow polling closely emphasize the Survey USA results? The better question to me is why does the Media ignore the Survey USA results? For Pennsylvania, many of us look for SUSA first and foremost for good reasons. Here are three of them - SUSA's results, INCLUDING INTERNALS, for the three states nearest Pennsylvania in terms of location and demographics, New York, New Jersey and Ohio, were by far the most accurate. I'll demonstrate on the flip.

SUSA's last NY poll had Clinton winning by 18, winning white 61-32(56% of the vote), losing A-As by 59-37 (21% of the vote), winning Hispanics by 66-26 (17% of the vote).

The result? Clinton by 17. According to exit polls, she won whites by 59-37 (70% of the vote), lost by 61-37 by A-As (16% of the vote), won Hispanics 70-26 (10% of the vote).

In SUSA's last New Jersey poll had Clinton winning by 11, winning whites 61-31(63% of the vote), losing A-As by 76-22 (18% of the vote), winning Hispanics by 49-43 (10% of the vote).

The result? Clinton by 10. According to exit polls, she won whites by 66-34 (59% of the vote), lost A-As by 82-14 (23% of the vote), won Hispanics 68-30 (12% of the vote).

The last Ohio SUSA poll had Clinton winning by 10, winning whites 62-36(81% of the vote) and losing A-As by 83-15 (16% of the vote).

The result? Clinton by 10. According to exit polls, she won whites by 64-34 (76% of the vote) and lost A-As by 87-13 (18% of the vote)

The best polling outfit by far in this election has been Survey USA, particularly in contests like Pennsylvania. And almost as importantly, SUSA's errors are consistent, underestimating Obama's A-A support and to a lesser degree, African American turnout. Since these errors have been consistent, it is easy to adjust SUSA's results to "correct" SUSA's previous errors.

It is the most helpful polling we have yet seen in any recent election.

< The Sound of 100 Mayors Clapping | SUSA KY Poll: Clinton By 36 >

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Why SUSA Provides the Most Helpful Polling | 84 comments (84 topical)

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i saw someone somwhere criticize susa (5.00 / 3) (#1)
by Turkana on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:45:00 PM EST

because they were wrong on missouri. the brilliant wit meant that susa called it for clinton, and obama won it. of course, susa had her winning it by something like 4, and obama won by 1, so it was not exactly a wild swing.

susa is, indeed, the one polling outfit to watch, this year. unless, of course, you want a good laugh, which leads to zogby and arg.

: Their Polling Director in 2004 (5.00 / 4) (#5)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:47:10 PM EST

here:

Some SurveyUSA competitors want you to think SurveyUSA gets an occasional election right, the way Miss Cleo occasionally gets a psychic prediction right. The facts are published and available for inspection. The odds that chance alone can explain SurveyUSA's success relative to other pollsters is 1,000,000,000:1, by many measures. To those who would like me at this point to disclose that SurveyUSA got the Newark mayor's election wrong in 2002, the San Francisco mayor's runoff wrong in 2003, and that SurveyUSA overstated Dean in the 2004 Iowa caucuses, we did. When you have as many at-bats as SurveyUSA, you are going to strike out from time to time. The question is: how does our entire body of work stand-up? By multiple objective Mosteller measures, SurveyUSA's data need take a back seat to no one's.

I'm posting this interview twice, but it's really very interesting.

Absolutely (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:45:36 PM EST

Of interest, an interview from a few years ago with Jay Leve, editor of SurveyUSA by the Hotline, excerpted by Mark Blumenthal.

How would you answer (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by bjorn on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:45:58 PM EST

your own question? Why do the media largely ignore SUSA and put more emphasis on Quinnipac for PA or whatever the poll du jour happens to be that day? I have not heard one person in the mainstream press talk about the success of SUSA during this election cycle. I don't even think Chuck Todd has mentioned it, but maybe I am wrong on that. My answer is that most media people probably don't really understand polls, how to read them or interpret them.

What is odd (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:52:01 PM EST

is that all the other polls but SUSA were wildly wrong about NH, and after the pundits got the results so wrong based on the incorrect polls, they said that they were going to be more careful about predicting wins or losses based on polling.

Instead of realizing that some methodologies were accurate and some weren't, they just discarded everything as inaccurate.

Very unjournamalistic of them. ;-)


Not everything... (5.00 / 5) (#25)
by Firefly4625 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:09:00 PM EST

They seem to still tout the polls that support their narrative.

If they want "Barack's closing the gap" they'll be holding up a poll that says that, to the exclusion of all others.

Of course, once Obama lost NY, Ohio, and the rest, the narrative was, "Well, the polls had her ahead by 20 (or whatever) and he only lost by 10 - so that's A WIN for Obama!"

Remember how we all used to laugh at how everything that happens to Bush/republicans is hyped by them as "this is good for Bush/republicans?" That's another tac Barack and his media friends have picked up from the right wing.

And I see it happening again today - headline right now on Yahoo - "Poll: Obama's 'bitter' comment having little impact on PA race." And the poll du jour? Quinnipiac.


This "helpful" media narrative.... (none / 0) (#67)
by Maria Garcia on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:18:35 PM EST

..has a big backlash potential IMHO. If you are mad about bittergate, hearing that it doesn't matter only makes you more bitter. LOL.


: Agreed (none / 0) (#79)
by joanneleon on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:57:24 PM EST

but if you're on the fence, hearing that it had little impact might make you think that if it didn't bother anyone else, it shouldn't bother you. I think that's the effect they are going for.

SUSA nailed it in California too (5.00 / 2) (#45)
by myiq2xu on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:31:49 PM EST

Before Super Tuesday, the media and the Boiz were pushing polls that had Obama tied or even ahead.

SUSA said Hillary by 10. They were right.


I think what happens is that so many (none / 0) (#11)
by Anne on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:52:29 PM EST

of the media outlets have their own polls, and choose to toot their own horns, however off-key or out-of-tune they might be.

Off the top of my head, there's ABC News-WaPo, WSJ-CBS, Newsweek-NBC, etc.

Sometimes one of the outlets will partner with an outfit like Zogby, Rasmussen, etc., but I don't see that as often.


Sure enough... (none / 0) (#20)
by Deadalus on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:59:13 PM EST

Rasmussen, which has such a horrible track record, must spend a whole hell of a lot to keep it's name brand recognition so high.....same goes for Zogby.


: No It Is Not Rassmussen (none / 0) (#35)
by squeaky on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:19:32 PM EST

That pumps themselves up. It is those who only want to confirm what they themselves believe to be true, no matter how many times the particular poll has been wrong.
Hope is what keeps these shucksters in business.

SUSA has been calling big states for HRC (5.00 / 5) (#17)
by Prabhata on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:57:59 PM EST

so the media gets bitter, so they cling to their pollsters and their narrative.

: Snark much? (1.00 / 0) (#24)
by Deadalus on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:02:33 PM EST

It's all a big conspiracy isn't it?

The bitter comment will have lasting effect (5.00 / 3) (#29)
by Prabhata on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:13:26 PM EST

It's the drip effect. When people heard the comments from Wright, they were turned off, but maybe let it go, but then BO adds his put down comment and they tell a story. BO's talk that we are not separate, that we are all Americans, is falling apart because it's true we're all Americans, but there are divisions that need to be addressed, not painted over and pretend that they don't exist.

: And that's why (5.00 / 2) (#40)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:26:13 PM EST

the kumbaya stuff never rang true to me.

BO's talk that we are not separate, that we are all Americans, is falling apart because it's true we're all Americans, but there are divisions that need to be addressed, not painted over and pretend that they don't exist.
You cannot "transcend" those differences with words. You need to set policies that lessen those differences.

: Especially considering most people... (none / 0) (#53)
by Exeter on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:46:12 PM EST

...are just now hearing about it.

SUSA Pennsylvania Internals (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Dan the Man on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:19:15 PM EST

Basically blacks went back to supporting Obama.

So I expected (5.00 / 1) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:25:44 PM EST

Trendlines now make perfect sense.


: 31% (none / 0) (#83)
by swiss473 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:42:06 PM EST

Obama at 31% of the white vote. That is not a good sign.
They also have women being 55% of the vote, in Ohio they were 59%.
Clinton leads with +60% on the economy and Health Care.
They have they youth vote only 51-46 for Obama and he only wins Philly and the suburbs 50-46.
It looks like Clinton will win rather comfortably.
My only issue with SUSA is sometimes their totals add up to 101% for certain cross tabs. But overall they seem to be spot on, and their internals are very helpful.

Obama is a lesson (5.00 / 4) (#44)
by blogtopus on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:31:21 PM EST

to the true progressives in the nation: hero worship and derangement syndromes can happen to everyone, not just GOPs.

Maybe someday we can learn. sigh

: YES (5.00 / 1) (#46)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:33:58 PM EST

especially now.
We are in such desperate straits in this country that I think a lot of us are looking for a hero to save us from the horrors of the Bush regime.
I prefer the Thom Hartmann model of leadership: they are at the head of the parade, but we the people are pushing them in the direction we want them to go.

: they don't see it as that (none / 0) (#78)
by Kensdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:53:20 PM EST

the progressives will never understand that thier own hero worship and derangement syndrome.
it's funny, but i never really got what the republicans were saying about dems until now. the whole obama cult thing really puts it in perspective.

Why are the blogs fixated on polls (none / 0) (#2)
by TalkRight on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:45:27 PM EST

[including this one] and not on the policies? This must the half a dozenth post of POLLS. [no pun, you got right to talk what you want] But lets talk more about the candidates.. jmho

i'll talk about the candidates: (5.00 / 5) (#7)
by Turkana on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:47:40 PM EST

i think clinton's doing better than obama in the pennsylvania polls.


Thanks for volunteering !! (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by TalkRight on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:49:01 PM EST

well done


Must be all polls (none / 0) (#28)
by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:12:54 PM EST

Even Kos always liked SUSA polling. I checked on today and he did not write the FP story on them but the numbers are there. SUSA was the highest for Hillary. Kos did write in a diary called judgement about headlines turncoat Joe Lieberman March 06 with Obama at a dinner.

Obama rallies state Democrats, throws support behind Lieberman

which came from the Boston.com Kos said:

For someone who likes to tout his "judgement", this is proof that no one, not even Obama, is infallible.

I was shocked to see that poo-poo on Obama (none / 0) (#58)
by Josey on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:05:52 PM EST

Maybe Kos is trying to recover some cred? - realizing Cling-gate will still be clinging in November.


Even Chirs M bailed out of those cling remarks!! (5.00 / 1) (#62)
by TalkRight on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:08:25 PM EST

may be just like him he also wants to be the senator from PA!!


Running as a Dem or GOP (none / 0) (#65)
by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:18:10 PM EST

Has his eye on Arlen's job when he retires some day, does he?


That job will have to be (5.00 / 1) (#80)
by joanneleon on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:08:04 PM EST

wrenched from Scottish Haggis Specter's cold, dead fists. He'll never retire ;)


: Retraction, with deep regret (none / 0) (#84)
by joanneleon on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 09:50:49 AM EST

Wow, do I ever feel awful about posting this comment. I had no idea that Sen. Specter's cancer had come back.
My deep apologies.

Colbert tried to make him speak (none / 0) (#72)
by TalkRight on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:30:30 PM EST

but he kept mum.. btw Stephen did tell him what hardball means!!!


I saw that..... (none / 0) (#69)
by Maria Garcia on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:23:13 PM EST

.....the comments on that post were mainly bashing Kos for his spelling.


I think Clinton's policies (5.00 / 5) (#9)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:49:52 PM EST

her fighting spirit and her obvious devotion to core dem causes has finally started to sink in with the voters.

(and, if you have a problem with topics here, please start your own blog. I promise you we'll come visit. Honest.)


well, i haven't started my own (5.00 / 4) (#22)
by Turkana on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:00:31 PM EST

but i write for one...

and clinton supporters should be particularly appreciative of one of our writers. i, of course, only write about polls...


: Polling says that (5.00 / 2) (#36)
by badger on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:20:59 PM EST

all of the writers at TLC do an excellent job, although eriposte is leading slightly and some demographics are concerned about the bitter person clinging to posting about global warming, Iraq and other similarly irrelevant topics.
But even that person writes well enough.

: Several good writers there; I visit often (5.00 / 2) (#38)
by Ellie on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:23:13 PM EST

... but i write for one
You're not a different one that's featured on the The Left Coaster, I assume.

: You Write (5.00 / 3) (#77)
by BDB on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:51:42 PM EST

for an excellent one.

What resonates with a lot of voters is (5.00 / 10) (#51)
by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:41:51 PM EST

the difference in attitude between Hillary and Obama. She is a fighter and sets out to the voters what she will fight for on their behalf. Obama doesn't discuss specifics of policy, or even policy in general. He makes speeches, but when called to explain policy can't manage more than a few uh's and some generic platitudes.

When Hillary is attacked, she fights back, sometimes not well, but still she won't take it lying down. That will serve her well in the GE.

When Obama is criticized for something he said, he gets defensive, insists that he is right and voters are not bright enough to understand him, and then he whines. It's the whining, insisting that he is right, and that we don't have the right to be offended that grates on people. Obama is starting to sound too immature to be in the Senate, never mind the White House.


: exactly! you nailed it (5.00 / 2) (#60)
by Josey on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:07:45 PM EST

Turkana writes for the Left Coaster (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by ghost2 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:20:58 PM EST

It's a very good blog. I check eriposte and Turkana regularly. There are other good writers there too.
The Left Coaster


Turk is a smart alec (5.00 / 2) (#81)
by joanneleon on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:10:44 PM EST

but he's our smart alec, and he's a good smart alec ;)


I don't know about the blogs... (5.00 / 1) (#56)
by Nadai on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:54:27 PM EST

but I personally fixate on polls because my ulcer isn't coming along fast enough from just the spicy food.


: funny (none / 0) (#61)
by Lil on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:07:49 PM EST

Hmm (none / 0) (#49)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:40:05 PM EST

This campaign is now a year old.

Is there something about the respective policy platforms of the candidates you think we have not discussed here?


campaign is year old.. SO IS HE (none / 0) (#59)
by TalkRight on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:05:57 PM EST

and I learn something new about Obama every day.. and they will surely impact his policies.. I know what his campaigns "stated" policies are .. just words.. we need to parse the rest...


: I just learned last night - (none / 0) (#66)
by Josey on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:18:23 PM EST

that Obama's vote against capping credit card interest rates was actually an amendment to the 2005 Bankruptcy bill which he and Hillary voted against. (technically, Bill was in the hospital and she didn't vote, but recorded her opposition to the bill.)
Hillary also voted against the amendment which passed (with Obama's help) along with the bill - a windfall for credit card companies.
(ahem: Biden!)

Gadzooks (none / 0) (#6)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:47:28 PM EST

am I reading it right that 37% of the white vote is the highest Obama got in these states?

BTD, I think you said something about this around Mississippi.

Amazing.

(and I would love it for someone who is less lazy than me to chart which polls the media touts. I'd bet some cold cash that they cherry pick the ones that show Obama doing well.)

Yet he'll still win the GE (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:53:19 PM EST

with those numbers? I find it hard to believe that many of them won't switch their support to McCain.


Obama will get Clinton's (5.00 / 2) (#27)
by waldenpond on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:11:50 PM EST

voters. You keep forgetting that 'fact.' Remember 'white me'? I'm going to vote for Obama even though I decided 4 months ago I would not vote for him because I found him inexperienced and didn't like several of his votes. I didn't know this, I still don't see how it's going to happen, but apparently there is a plan that will magicly mark that spot on my ballot.


Of course he will! (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Firefly4625 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:18:31 PM EST

Because so many of us are WOMEN. You know how we all are - we b*tch and moan and nag for a while, but we eventually fall in line.


It will be difficult for him to get her voters (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Prabhata on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:19:21 PM EST

The way I see it, his big vote base is the AA. That vote will normally fall in great numbers to HRC, but some of HRC voters, as one sees the polls from FL and OH against McCain, Obama does poorly. Those voters voted for BC and Reagan, but are not likely to vote for Obama. He's seen as too liberal. The funny thing is that he is not because he is more tentative when facing controversial issues.


: Ummm... (5.00 / 5) (#54)
by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:49:58 PM EST

he is more tentative when facing controversial issues.
What he does is wait until he can see what the winning side is going to be, or the more politically helpful position. He doesn't face issues, he uses them to his advantage. And, in my opinion, that is his only criteria on issues. Will that stance do him any good politically? is the only "issue" for Obama, as far as I can see.

He sure counted this Chick before she came home (5.00 / 3) (#55)
by Ellie on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:53:03 PM EST

... to roost but before I got settled in with supporting either remaining candidate, he ruffled my feathers.

He's a bad candidate. I was willing to overlook his lack of substance on the off-chance his purported idealism and promise to be straightforward was more than self-hype, but his tangible tactics, words and deeds -- that he and only he are responsible for committing -- prove otherwise.

He'd make a poor leader. He's not progressive. He'll do squat for the SCOTUS, since he's already pandered to some egregiously misogynistic pols and promised to Unite with worse ones and he's too slippery by half.

If he loses it's all his own fault. Short of a miraculous change in what he's shown so far, I'll support candidates for a muscular Congress, vote down-ticket and join what I predict will be a substantial campaign for a write-in vote.


Hopeful (none / 0) (#23)
by Prabhata on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:00:47 PM EST

I see why some people are attracted to BO


Carryover from other thread (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:53:49 PM EST

If SDs acknowledge this, will they be branded as racist? This I swear is the elephant in the room.


No (5.00 / 2) (#16)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:57:34 PM EST

Obama gave them the perfect out with the cling-gaffe. They can say that he insulted small town Americans, that he is out of touch, etc. Those on the other side who complain should be told that, if they do not agree with this assessment of his gaffe, then explain why it is not just as invalid as the "racist" charge.

Slippery slope.

(and now I have to go on a biz trip. I'll try to check in, but keep up the Lord's work with these new folk! BTD, don't cry; I'll be back)


Bingo! on the "out". (5.00 / 4) (#30)
by Fabian on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:15:33 PM EST

When you are trying to close a deal, you never, ever give your client any reason to say "No.". Your job is to think of a hundred reasons for them to say "Yes." and to pretend that there is not a reason in the world for them to decline your offer.

Obama has just offered up the perfect "out" for voters and others. And no, Hillary did not make him do it.


I think that's why (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by Firefly4625 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:27:45 PM EST

we're now seeing a movement at places like kos (diary last night) accusing everybody who's offended by Obama's elitist comments of really meaning he's an "uppity N___" - kos poster's words, not mine. The poster's advice to all - scream "racism" every minute of every day.

I think (hope) this is becoming the boy who cried wolf, though - and that Americans are sick and tired of being falsely accused of racism.


Oh I can't wait to hear TeamObama explain ... (5.00 / 2) (#47)
by Ellie on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:36:22 PM EST

... why calling HRC "divisive" or "ambitious" wasn't overtly sexist and, even beyond that, encouraging media to dredge up obscene right wing hatreds while the Unity Kidz looked the other way.


: If only they had to! (none / 0) (#52)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:41:59 PM EST

But their answer will be, as always:
IACF.

That always rankles me (5.00 / 1) (#73)
by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:36:04 PM EST

I was in San Diego in a packed bar on St. Pat's night. A nice AA asked me to dance. When I said packed I mean it was shoulder to shoulder. I declined and the first thing he said to me is, "You won't dance with me because I am black". I was with friends who were AA & Asian also. I got very annoyed and said," No, the reason I won't dance with you is because it is too crowded and sweltering in this place. I don't care what color you are." Believe me, there are plenty of white people I do not like and I hate when anyone pulls the race card. It is called manipulation by guilt. I am getting OT now and BTD hates that.

Polls are important although a lot called it for Kerry. And polls are only as good as the people answering them. Many factors can change on Election Day but SUSA seems to be the one that is trusted by bloggers.


OMG (none / 0) (#43)
by madamab on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:30:05 PM EST

They cannot be serious.


: There was a FP diary on "boy" (5.00 / 1) (#48)
by Fabian on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:38:05 PM EST

But I would bet that there were more accusing the Clinton campaign of racism and various other sins than there are beating up on McCain.
Every once in a while, some moderate, thoughtful person will point out that we are all Democrats and that the vitriol hurts the Party. And it'll get recced up and then forgotten the following day as the next wave of Hillary....! diaries roll in.

This is one... (none / 0) (#15)
by Josmt on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:57:33 PM EST

Poll: Obama's 'bitter' comment having little impact on Pa. race


: Said this before on different (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by bjorn on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:17:35 PM EST

topic but I for one am not surprised that bittergate is not hurting Obama much in PA. I don't think white working class dems have been voting for him in large numbers anywhere, so he did not have their votes to lose! It will hurt him more in the GE, because he will get a very small piece, tiny piece of white working class, repub or dem. I think bittergate hurts him more with Repubs

: I was replying to the chery picking from the media (none / 0) (#19)
by Josmt on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:59:00 PM EST

Isn't it that case (none / 0) (#14)
by Deadalus on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:57:17 PM EST

that SurveyUSA used to suck but has been the best this season? I didn't watch polls obsessively last go-round, so I don't recall, but they've been awesome (except for Missouri) this year.

: They've pretty much always been good (none / 0) (#18)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:58:26 PM EST

: Not true (none / 0) (#26)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:11:38 PM EST

Go to their web site and look at the history they have there. They've been consistently very good for a number of years.

: People (as in A-list bloggers) used to be (none / 0) (#50)
by badger on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:41:12 PM EST

skeptical of SUSA's methodology and tended to discount them for that in 2004. That's changed because they've been one of the top two or three pollsters in 2004 and since (I believe - but you can look it up somewhere).

It seems to me (none / 0) (#21)
by Lil on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 12:59:35 PM EST

that Hillary's trend toward improving numbers, (pretty much any poll I've seen lately) started earlier. It feels like in the earlier contests, she didn't start to see movement back towards her until right up to the day of the primary. Now it seems the numbers are swinging towards her a lot earlier. Is this the right sense and if so, what is the implication of that?

SUSA PA trendlines confusing (none / 0) (#37)
by magster on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:21:37 PM EST

Not saying one way or another about whether they're wrong, but the movement in their polls have seemed to swing opposite of other polls, with this last one showing Obama gaining. We'll find out next week.

: Actually (none / 0) (#41)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:26:21 PM EST

it is easy to understand. A-A Obama consolidation.
Just as I predicted.

Polls: Anyone know (none / 0) (#57)
by Molly Pitcher on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:02:23 PM EST

where these poll statistics came from (local letter to editor advising HRC to get out because she is embarrassing the party)?

Her favorability rating nationwide: 37%
Obama supporters who would vote McCain rather than HRC (if she stole the nomination): 28%. Do I detect the odor of moth balls or kool-aid?

Michigan and Florida have no interest in helping her to continue her campaign, it says. Therefore: "Let the two nominees get on with determining who is best suited--etc., etc.

Pollster has a collection of favorability polls (none / 0) (#70)
by fuzzyone on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:28:50 PM EST

on Clinton here There are several numbers like that. The 37 might be from the most recent NBC poll (its the total of the positive and somewhat positive numbers). CBS has her at 39. The numbers are all over the place though. Gallup and USA Today both have her over 50. I suspect this may be one of those things where the wording of the question is significant.


: Sorry, should be 38 for CBS. n/t (none / 0) (#71)
by fuzzyone on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:29:45 PM EST

I would hazard a guess (none / 0) (#82)
by K Lynne on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:15:40 PM EST

that a good chunk of Obama voters (those 'newly involved in politics') would just stay home and not vote at all.

I wonder if any pollster is asking that question?


SUSA: Clinton 62-26 in Kentucky (none / 0) (#63)
by Dan the Man on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:16:20 PM EST

Are exits more reliable than SUSA? (none / 0) (#64)
by fuzzyone on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:17:30 PM EST

BTD said:

SUSA's errors are consistent, underestimating Obama's A-A support and to a lesser degree, African American turnout.

By "errors" I think you are referring to divergences between SUSA and the exits. But isn't it also possible the exits are wrong, they certainly have not always been reliable. I'm not a polling expert, just wondering.

: True enough (none / 0) (#75)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:41:38 PM EST

SUSA Kentucky Poll Clinton 62 Obama 26 (none / 0) (#74)
by Salt on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:37:37 PM EST

I agree this is the only pollster I follow that can alarm me if there are shifts, but oddly their polls have also pretty much matched what I hear day to day on where people are leaning.

What about Gallup daily compared to (none / 0) (#76)
by Salt on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:49:53 PM EST

SUSA, Gallup Polls never seems correct?