Hillary leads among these core constituencies: women, seniors, Latinos, working classs and rural voters.
Overall, more than 22 million Democratic primary voters were over the age of 45 this year, compared to less than 10 million who voted in the 2004 Democratic primaries.
Women primary voters rose from 7.56 million in the 2004 Democratic primaries to more than 21 million to date in 2008 – from 54% to 58% of the Democratic primary electorate. At the same time, Latinos increased from 9% to 12% of the Democratic primary electorate, from 1.26 million in 2004 to 4.42 million in 2008.
Only Hillary is positioned to win FL and Ohio, both critical in 2004. She does better with voters on the commander-in-chief issue and the economy.
She is more likely to win Ohio and Florida. Without these two states, it is a difficult road to the White House, especially against a candidate like Senator McCain, who is from the Southwest and enjoys considerable support among Latinos.
The electoral map: Hillary leads McCain by 120 while Obama trails him by 46.
The states Hillary Clinton has won in the primary have a total of 308 electoral votes; the states Senator Obama has won have a total of 224 electoral votes. Hillary won 7 of the 8 states with the most electoral votes – Senator Obama won his home state of Illinois.
...A different analysis at www.electoral-vote.com shows that Hillary outperforms Senator Obama against John McCain in the key swing states with the largest number of electoral votes – Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri – as well as smaller swing states like New Hampshire, West Virginia and Arkansas.
And yet another analysis, using recent public polls with general election match-ups in each state, shows that if the election were held tomorrow, Hillary Clinton would defeat Senator McCain with more than 300 electoral votes (329, when 270 is required to win) while Senator Obama would lose to Senator McCain with fewer than 250 electoral votes (246, to be exact).
Importantly, Hillary leads Senator McCain in Florida, Ohio, West Virginia and Arkansas –
all states in which Senator Obama trails Senator McCain. And a May 22, 2008 Rasmussen poll shows Hillary leading Senator McCain in Kentucky 51/42, while Senator Obama trails Senator McCain by 25 points
Hillary has a broader geographic base of support. She has won 1,654 counties; Senator Obama has won 1,299 counties.
White women and Latinos played a big part in John Kerry losing in 2004. Hillary has much more of them:
In 2004, Bush’s victory over John Kerry was a result of the shift of two groups – Latinos and white women – in Bush’s favor. These are two of Hillary Clinton’s strongest groups.
Hillary has won these two groups overwhelmingly in the Democratic primaries, and Hillary also generated huge turnout increases among both groups.
On the African American vote:
Hillary appreciates and respects the choice of many African American voters to support Senator Obama but she has never stopped working to gain their support. She has earned the endorsement of so many prominent African American leaders because
they know her lifetime record of service on behalf of issues that are important to the African American community – working to help create the Children’s Health Insurance Program; fighting to raise the minimum wage; expanding and improving early childhood education; working to revitalize our cities; and sponsoring the Count Every Vote Act to ensure that every vote counts and every vote is counted. They know she will continue that work as President.
Hillary is committed to unifying the party, and she will never stop campaigning for the votes of African Americans in the race for the White House.
In closing:
The race will be decided by automatic delegates, with no candidate getting the majority of total delegates needed. Hillary Clinton will finish the primary season with more votes, the lead in public opinion polls as to who is best able to turn the economy around and be an effective Commander-in-Chief, and with the better chance of
putting together the electoral map to win in November and take back the White House.
****
Hillary Clinton has written this letter to the Superdelegates. It ends with:
In the end, I am committed to unifying this party. What Senator Obama and I share is so much greater than our differences; and no matter who wins this nomination, I will do everything I can to bring us together and move us forward.
But at this point, neither of us has crossed the finish line. I hope that in the time remaining, you will think hard about which candidate has the best chance to lead our party to victory in November. I hope you will consider the results of the recent primaries and what they tell us about the mindset of voters in the key battleground states. I hope you will think about the broad and winning coalition of voters I have built. And most important, I hope you will think about who is ready to stand on that stage with Senator McCain, fight for the deepest principles of our party, and lead our country forward into this new century.
Update: Here's Hillary Rosen on why Hillary's supporters are sticking with her.
