Let's compare that to Florida 2004:
Bush won whites (70% of the electorate) 57-42; Kerry won African American (12% of the electorate) 86-13; and Bush won Hispanics (15% of the electorate) 56-44. Bush won Florida by 4 points.
It is surprising that Q does not provide the Latino breakout, but for the sake of argument let's assume a 56-44 split for McCain. The real story here is Obama capturing 40% of the white vote. The 95-4 on the African American vote will, imo, hold up in virtually every state for Obama. The real issue is will the 40% of the white vote hold up? John Kerry captured 42% of the white vote so it SHOULD be possible.
ARG has Obama within 3 of McCain with the white vote in Florida:
McCain leads Obama 48% to 45% among white voters (73% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 88% to 8% among African American voters (11% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 50% to 41% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters).
Now let's dig into the Q poll's Ohio numbers:
Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55.
Let compare to Ohio 2004:
Bush won whites (86% of the electorate) 56-44. Kerry won African Americans (10% of the electorate) 83-16 and Latinos (3% of the electorate) 65-35. Bush won Ohio by 2 points.
Again, while Obama is assured of winning African Americans by 95-5 in Ohio and probably increasing turnout, the real story here will be if Obama can match or exceed Kerry's share of the white vote in Ohio. If he can, he will win Ohio easily.
Finally, in Pennsylvania, the Q poll says:
Obama tops McCain 57 - 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama. Obama leads 61 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 - 43 percent with voters over 55. The Democrat inches ahead 47 - 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 - 1 percent.
(Emphasis supplied.) The funny number is the 95-1 African American split but it is realistic to me. Obama will capture 19 of every 20 African American vote cast and there will be more African American votes cast in this election than in any other in history. But the important number is the white vote. Q has Obama LEADING among whites in Pennsylvania. Let's compare to Pennsylvania 2004:
Bush won whites (82% of the electorate) 54-45. Kerry won African Americans (13% of the vote) 86-13 and Latinos (35 of the vote) 72-28. Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.
To win Pennsylvania, Obama need only match Kerry's performance with white voters (45%). Right now, in the Q poll, he exceeds it. If that holds up, Pennsylvania is safe. And I believe it is.
What is the upshot of all this data? To me it is pretty simple - McCain and the Republican will have to play the race card to have a chance. they have to push down Obama's appeal to white voters to have a chance. They always do of course. But now they must do it against a vigilant Media who are supporting Obama. A tough road to travel for the Straight talk Express.
But the prospect of a landslide loss is staring them in the face.
By Big Tent Democrat
