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Montana And South Dakota Predictions Open Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Other Politics
Posted on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:51:44 PM EST
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I have not a clue what to expect from South Dakota and Montana, and will not even venture a guess. But you can give it a shot. I will make one prediction - a lot of people are going to say a lot of nice things about Hillary Clinton tonight.

This is an Open Thread.

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    Montana And South Dakota Predictions Open Thread | 82 comments (82 topical)

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    I predict the polls will close today (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:54:00 PM EST
    in Montana and South Dakota.

    I know almost nothing about either state, so here's my attempt at a joke.

    Please predict when the polls in each (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:04:11 PM EST
    state will close.  Preferably in PDT.  

    Parent
    MT polls close at 6pm Pacific time (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:51:35 PM EST


    Parent
    yeah..cause I cannot figure out (none / 0) (#48)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:15:32 PM EST
    time zones...( actually, I had a heck of time figuring out Puerto Rico, I felt like a real goober and had to ask BTD) Low information

    Parent
    Which Dakota again? (none / 0) (#50)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:20:04 PM EST


    Parent
    South....the ones with the accent (none / 0) (#51)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:22:27 PM EST
    the one with the "Badlands",  Rushmore...and other great sites.  

    Parent
    did you vote no on 98 yet? (none / 0) (#59)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:29:10 PM EST


    Parent
    No. Didn't get around to filling out and (none / 0) (#73)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:45:26 PM EST
    mailing absentee ballot (post-Sat. apathy) and had to get my car smogged today.  

    Parent
    think we could have mattered today (none / 0) (#74)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:48:09 PM EST
    if we did not join the mob.  

    Parent
    My predictions are toxic. (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by ineedalife on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:56:25 PM EST
    So I will only wish Hillary well.

    They are both (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:56:53 PM EST
    pretty states.  Lovely.  They will continue to be pretty and lovely as will Hillary continue to be the better candidate for President.  

    Absent the ARG polls (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:57:24 PM EST
    I would have predicted solid Obama wins in both states. No I just have no idea.

    No wonder Obama wants this to (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:02:01 PM EST
    be over before SD and MT votes are counted.  Neither andgarden nor BTD has a clue what will happen in these states.  

    Parent
    Really! LOL! (5.00 / 4) (#9)
    by madamab on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:03:12 PM EST
    Without their input, I am lost, hopelessly lost.

    And I haven't heard from the Poll Di Tutti Polli, KUSA!

    Parent

    Spine up or (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by kmblue on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:32:08 PM EST
    belly up?
    Where's Kathy when we need her? ;)

    Parent
    I predict (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by madamab on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:58:17 PM EST
    Obama will barely acknowledge Hillary's existence, especially if she actually wins one or both of these states.

    He'll drop a line into his speech that (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:02:41 PM EST
    he called Clinton.

    Parent
    Oyyyyyy. (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by madamab on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:03:43 PM EST


    Parent
    will he say (5.00 / 4) (#20)
    by Capt Howdy on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:25:01 PM EST
    what he called her?

    Parent
    Captain (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by kmblue on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:35:09 PM EST
    yer killing me!

    Parent
    I predict he will actually spend alot of time (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by JoeA on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:08:27 PM EST
    talking about what a wonderful campaign Hillary has run and what a great person she is.

    Let's see who is right.

    Parent

    I predict that when he does that (5.00 / 6) (#22)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:28:31 PM EST
    it will be correctly interpreted by many as insincere double-talking crap.

    Parent
    Lets see (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by tree on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:31:30 PM EST
    if he's managed to learn how to do more than pause and smile when the crowd starts booing.

    Parent
    They won't boo (none / 0) (#58)
    by waldenpond on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:28:52 PM EST
    unlike the Obama people visiting here today.  The visitors today seem very angry.  I would have expected they would be over at Kos celebrating as this site supports Clinton until Clinton says it's over.   They have been here for weeks declaring the race over yet still obsess over and complain about everything Clinton.   I cringe when I read some of the comments.

    Parent
    truly don't get it (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:31:18 PM EST
    why they like to get beat up.  Cause they never really get a point in, we heard them all.  

    Parent
    Certainly by me (5.00 / 3) (#29)
    by Lena on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:46:32 PM EST
    You cannot act like a jerk for month after month, and then utter some condescending platitudes and expect everyone to fall in line.

    Any "kind words" of his would have to be matched by actions. Moreover, his "kind words" should includes ones denouncing and rejecting his sexist and heavy-handed blog supporters. Then, he should speak about his deep, but as yet unexpressed, support for women's issues, next he should talk about racial issues, and for a change not do so from the viewpoint of one whose back is against the wall because his pastor or guest pastor said completely sexist and loathsome things. He might even denounce the sexism in the media, as a really gutsy and daring move. Then he should talk about embracing HRC's healthcare plan, after further reflection upon the woeful inadequacy of his own.

    Then he should fire his most loathsome and dirty campaign operatives.

    Then I will consider his kind words, and whether they are "kind" enough for me to support him.

    Parent

    Ditto (none / 0) (#82)
    by gandy007 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:32:11 PM EST
    As one who is totally objective, I am sure that reluctantly, that will be my interpretation.

    Parent
    What Dr. Molly said (none / 0) (#83)
    by gandy007 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:34:14 PM EST


    Parent
    I predict not many will say nice things about (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by Teresa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:07:05 PM EST
    Hillary based on what I saw last night. The cable TV bashing was as bad as ever, worse when you include what an awful liability Bill has been, according to them.

    It's funny, when they turned Bill loose to campaign more starting with Ohio and Texas, how much of a liability was he with the voters? Obama can only wish for a liability like Bill.

    Bill: terrible liability in West Virginia. (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:42:21 PM EST
    It was ever so funny when Dick Morris let his mask slip and made this prediction: If the Dems lose West Virginia they will not win the White House.

    He was refering to Demographic realty where Ohio goes the same way and Missouri completes the pattern.

    Parent

    As we know, (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by madamab on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:12:45 PM EST
    South Dakota is part of Appalachia, like Puerto Rico.

    We all know Obama has no chance in Appalachia. ;-)

    Parent

    Some truth to that. (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by Joan in VA on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:25:34 PM EST
    There is a bit of a concentration of  Scots-Irish in the Dakotas, same as in Appalachia. My peeps are everywhere!

    Parent
    why don't they ask dick morris who paid him (none / 0) (#69)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:43:27 PM EST
    to go and work in kenya as a lobbist or consultant. let him put that out there before he begins berating hillary or bill his favorite pin cushions. and dick, why don't you take your own inventory before waddling out to attack someone else.

    Parent
    Watch the speech (none / 0) (#28)
    by anydemwilldo on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:43:28 PM EST
    Ignore the talking heads (and, yes, that includes a lot of bloggers, including occasionally posts on this site).  They're paid to create controversy.

    Watch what the Obama campaign is saying.  I'll be willing to be that fully half of his speech tonight will be about Hillary, and it will be nothing but glowing praise.  Her speech will likewise have nothing but nice things to say about Obama and his supporters, even if it still contains mild "I believe I would be the stronger candidate" language.

    In the coming weeks, look for policy alignment between the two camps.  I, for one, wouldn't be at all surprised to see Obama dump his health care plan (which never really got the "centrist" traction it was intended to draw) in favor of Hillary's, which is generally considered better.  Watch for, if not a VP choice, top-level Clinton people to show up in high level positions in the Obama campaign.

    Basically, it's time to remember the stuff we agree on.

    Parent

    I'd say it's a little late when his people have (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by Teresa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:54:32 PM EST
    smeared her for months and he did nothing to stop it. In some cases, he contributed to it.

    The very first thing he should do? Go on Keith Olbermann and tell him off. Our national nightmare is ending? He is one of Obama's best known supporters and for Obama to accept KO's BS sickens me. That's just a small start anydem. Because any Dem worth anything to me would have stopped this crap long ago.

    Parent

    Please... (3.00 / 0) (#35)
    by anydemwilldo on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:59:54 PM EST
    Please please please tone down the anger.  Your definition for "any dem worth anything" includes, by defintion, almost exactly half the party.  You can't really believe that, can you?

    Parent
    I am pretty sure (5.00 / 3) (#36)
    by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:01:44 PM EST
    that "almost exactly half the party" does not believe in spewing rancid hatred at Hillary on national TV.

    Parent
    Steve, you always say what I want to say but (5.00 / 3) (#46)
    by Teresa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:13:18 PM EST
    so much better and in so fewer words. You're a nice guy. Cheer your wife up tonight. :)

    Parent
    Aw! (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by Steve M on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:42:04 PM EST
    You say the sweetest things.

    Parent
    Does KO even get (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by madamab on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:14:25 PM EST
    1,000,000 viewers in his time slot?

    And haven't almost 40 million voted in this primary?

    Yeah...doesn't seem like half the Party to me.

    Parent

    I really do mean that. Look at BTD...he (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by Teresa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:08:05 PM EST
    supports Obama and he has spent months defending Hillary from these smears. Obama's camp has participated in them. I realize that in any campaign, people on on both sides have to say some things they might not otherwise, but even last night, his surrogates on TV would not admit that the media has been harder on her than him. They wouldn't even admit the media has been unfair to her at all.

    Any Democrat that is worth sharing a party with me should speak out about this. Maybe I only share political beliefs with them now and not moral ones.

    I'm not an angry person anydem. I swear. Everyone who knows me tells me I am too nice and I let people walk all over me. If an easy going person like me feels this way, it has to be much worse than you realize.

    Parent

    Oh man (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by kmblue on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:08:20 PM EST
    If you are for real, and if you are really representative of Obama supporters, then the
    Dems are really going to lose and lose big.

    You truly don't know what you're dealing with in terms of what you've unleashed.

    Parent

    Timing is everything (5.00 / 3) (#32)
    by kmblue on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:57:48 PM EST
    Tonight is not the right time, therefore,
    fugedaboudit.

    Parent
    Why would Obama want racists... (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by ineedalife on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:04:59 PM EST
    on his team? Would Michelle still get to scratch Bill's eye out? Surely he wouldn't stoop to the level of people who, "would say and do anything to win"?

    After all the crap Obama has allowed, and repeated himself, how could he associate himself with such people?

    Parent

    "remember the stuff we agree on." (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by nycstray on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:25:45 PM EST
    and this is where Obama has been lacking, imo, along with experience. I don't trust him with some of the advisers he has and some of the things he has said (or not said). His hoping on the pander pony or taking some of Hillary's positions is not going to change that. He's had months to convince people, why would 17 million people suddenly believe him? Yes he'll get a percentage of them, but will it be enough?

    Parent
    Obama Killed Any Chance Of Adopting (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:40:01 PM EST
    Hillary's Health when he ran his "poison pill" Harry and Louis ads against it. So that meme is pure nonsense. It is time for Obama's exclusive NEW Democratic Party to prove it is viable.

    Parent
    and i lay you even money she barely (5.00 / 0) (#71)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:44:32 PM EST
    will get a mention in keeping with his past performance and attitude. the unity party left the barn already.

    Parent
    Any news reports of turnout in the two states? (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by jawbone on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:08:07 PM EST
    Of course, I have no idea which candidate benefits from high turnout. I did wonder if the SD poll reflected some anger at the MCM for savaging Sen. Clinton about her RFK musing to The Argus editorial board.

    Now, off to vote in the NJ Dem primary.

    I'd suggest that Hillary (none / 0) (#14)
    by jeffinalabama on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:09:36 PM EST
    benefits from higher turnout.

    Parent
    Turn out high in both SD & MT (none / 0) (#57)
    by angie on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:28:02 PM EST
    according to the NY Times although, considering what a terrible job their "reporting" has been this year, I'd take it with a grain of salt.

    Parent
    I just posted this on the How to Lobby SDs thread (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Iphie on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:22:30 PM EST
    but I wanted to repost it here so more people could read it.

    Jon Ausman (he of the "Ausman Compromise" that gave us the 50% solution in FL) has said that he remains uncommitted, but will announce his endorsement this afternoon at 3:00. There's still time to call him.

    Jon Ausman (850) 386 - 1387 ausman@embarqmail.com

    At 3PM? (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:26:53 PM EST
    I'd say that makes it obvious he's going for Obama.

    Parent
    Prediction? (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:39:10 PM EST
    If she wins SD we will get a tour of boise.

    If she loses both the media  will light their torches and storm Chapaqua.

    See, no way out.

    I predict (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by DaveOinSF on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:02:57 PM EST
    I predict if Obama loses one of the two states, the networks will not spend one minute wondering how, considering he got >60% in the caucuses in all the surrounding states, that it was even a contest in SD or MT.

    They'll be too busy crowning him the winner to bother with the actual results.

    Montana Here and some of us sure don't (5.00 / 5) (#49)
    by MontanaMaven on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:19:40 PM EST
    appreciate the media, the Obama Campaign, the AP, the DNC giving only 1/2 votes to Floridians, etc all attempting to make Montana irrelevant again.

    Just let us vote and shut the F... up.  My neighbor 'Red", former oil refinery worker and NRA member,  voted for Hillary because she said Montanans could keep their hand guns and pack 'em.  Bill Clinton came to this state and made over 12 appearances.  Hilary has the better health care plan and energy plan is much better.
    But hey, we also have a whole bunch of yuppie bikers, anglers, and hikers who are very educated and believe that the elite should govern. Obama has a superior organization and as we now are being told, it's all about "change" i.e. changing the demographics, not changing the country for the better.
    I have lived here for 16 years.  My husband is a third generation cattle rancher.  I'm a county chair.  I'm have the only leftie talk radio show in Montana.
    And I haven't a clue what will happen.  But before all the false claims of Hillary conceding, I would have said that she would surprise people with how strong she will show here.
    Oh, and caucuses suck.  I was in Iowa in 2004 and 2008. They are undemocratic.
     

    Thank you... (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:24:17 PM EST
    and I love your state!!

    Parent
    thank you (5.00 / 0) (#76)
    by ccpup on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:54:47 PM EST
    for giving those Lefties in Montana an opportunity to hear their own voices via your radio show.

    I love Montana.  I grew up in WA State, but our family owns a ranch outside of Libby and we spent our Summers there.  Although I divide my time between New York and Paris now, I still manage to get back and saddle up every other year or so.

    The sky in Montana is unlike anywhere else.  You're lucky to live there.  :-)

    Parent

    My Only Prediction (5.00 / 3) (#53)
    by BDB on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:23:11 PM EST
    There will be complete befuddlement that saying nice things about Hillary Clinton is not enough to unite the Democratic Party.  I mean, Robert Wexler pounded on a table and demanded unity, isn't that enough?

    The Democratic Party is filled with stupid people who listen to stupid people in our like this:

    GWEN IFILL: Now, Karen, how much of this is emotion? And how much will practicality rule of the day?

    KAREN TUMULTY: Well, you know, it's not unusual for supporters at the end of a long and bruising primary -- and, as Adam says, this has been longer and more bruising than most -- to feel this way.

    And you hear a lot of pundits, even party leaders, pointing to polls that suggest that a third or more of Hillary Clinton supporters will say that, in November, they will not vote for Barack Obama.

    But if you look back at history, if you look back at the polling that was done, say, of people who voted for Ronald Reagan and the Republican Party in 1976, or people who voted, you know, in 1984 for Gary Hart, you often find these kinds of percentages, somewhere between 30 percent and 40 percent, saying, "I am not going to support that other person."

    So, you see, the Democratic Party has nothing to worry about, Barack Obama can be every bit as successful as Gerald Ford was in 1976 or Walter Mondale was in 1984.  

    Then, having not embarrassed herself enough, Tumulty said:

    Whether the party comes together in many ways depends more on the loser than the winner of this primary. I think that Hillary Clinton's supporters are going to be looking to her for some signals, in terms of how enthusiastic she is about Barack Obama's candidacy and how much she campaigns for him.

    Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. I know if Obama is the nominee, Clinton will enthusiastically support him.  I've always known that.  So that will not be any new information that could change my feelings about Obama.  What's more, I've voted for plenty of Democrats who were not my choice in the primary.

    The only person who can change my feelings about Obama is Obama.  Hillary Clinton isn't going to be on my ballot.  And Obama's going to have an uphill battle because not only am I angry with him, I'm angry with the Democratic Party which has shown itself to be corrupt, venal, and way too comfortable with misogyny (which isn't just directed at Hillary Clinton, it's directed at all women).

    I don't follow the herd. I was an Edwards (5.00 / 0) (#77)
    by MontanaMaven on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:56:36 PM EST
    supporter.  I don't care who he endorses.  I think for myself.  I supported him for his strong support of taking on the corporatists, and especially health care.   Hillary's health care plan is his.
    Hillary took up the union cause.  Hillary seems to be really finding and liking her working class roots.
    Hillary is who she is.  Obama has too many U of Chicago "Shock Doctrine" types slithering around him.  They make the DLC look like left wing whackos.  His advisor Cass Sunstein, who is a big fan of the jury system,  just wrote a book "Nudge"in which he describes himself as a "libertarian paternalist".  I had one Daddy and I don't need anymore. Oh we've been had again.


    Parent
    I predict (5.00 / 0) (#60)
    by This from a broad on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:29:19 PM EST
    Hillary will thank everyone.  She will reiterate that she is the best person to be President.  She will then announce that she is running as an Independent.  Why not?  The dopes in the democratic party have doen nothing for her.  I also think she would have a fair shot at winning.

    Saying nice things... (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by OrangeFur on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:10:52 PM EST
    People in the media and government generally only say nice things about a politician when she or he

    (1) loses (John Kerry, Al Gore, John Edwards)
    (2) becomes seriously ill (Tim Johnson, Ted Kennedy)
    (3) dies (Ron Brown, Gerald Ford)
    (4) is named Barack Obama or John McCain

    Personally, any attempt at reconciliation tonight by Obama won't do it for me. Actions speak a lot louder than words. His actions over the last few months have often been deeply offensive. He'll have to make up for it with actions, not more pretty words. Frankly, I'm not any more inclined to believe him than I was to believe Bush in 2004.

    But you have to pick a winner somehow (2.00 / 0) (#33)
    by anydemwilldo on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:58:09 PM EST
    Think of it if the situation were reversed, and Obama was suddenly (and, yes, coming as it would be at the hands of the superdelegates at the convention, it would be sudden) bounced from the ticket.  All the pain, all the fear, and all the anger that you see in this forum would just be repeated, but on the other "side" (sigh) of the argument and with much, much less time to recover.

    We would still need to be talking about unity in that circumstance.  We can't win without it, period.

    At some point, someone is going to have to be big enough to say "I am still going to support the candidate on the ticket, even if he or she isn't my favorite".  I'm not hearing any of that yet in the posts here, from either side, and it's scaring the crap out of me...

    If you guys can't get over this, how are the Obama nuts going to do it?

    Sudden = since March 1st (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by Valhalla on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:58:49 PM EST
    n/t

    Parent
    anydemwilldo (5.00 / 3) (#38)
    by kmblue on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:03:25 PM EST
    I am only one voter and I don't agree with you.
    How much time has Senator Obama had to reach out to
    Clinton voters?
    And yet, he can't let her and her supporters have tonight to start to adjust.  Nope, got to stomp on her last (possible) victory, as BTD said in another thread.
    And here you are, flogging the Unity Pony.
    I suggest you are a bit tone deaf.
    But that's just me.

    Parent
    the unity pony has left the barn. (5.00 / 0) (#65)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:39:47 PM EST
    phone disconnected and mail forwarded to new digs in central park

    Parent
    Wow, mister, you make a lot of assumptions! (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by Upstart Crow on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:22:42 PM EST
    Many of us have "gotten over it" -- but just not in the way you think we should.

    I'd like to see Hill win one tonight, even the DNC and MSM are going to lie, cheat, steal to promote their golden boy. I'd like to see her do it one last time.

    But whatever happens, I'm not voting for your guy in November. He's not "second best" in my opinion.

    I'm picking up a flavor of fascism from this campaign that creates an instinctive resistance "and repugnance in me. "Unity" means suppressing or eliminating dissenting opinions.  Thugs and bullies intimidate people into voting their ways by false media reports, vote manipulation, and screaming "racist!" at any criticism. We are asked to believe utterly in Mein Obama, without any evidence of his efficacy.  Orwellian slogans and words -- change, hope, unity -- are used to convey the opposite of the actual processes going on. And the old, the infirm, the women, the Latinos are being discarded for the young, the powerful, the elite.

    So no, I won't be falling in line.  You can send the thugs out to work me over this fall. I'm an "old woman," anyway, so I can be discarded. I still won't vote. Capice?  

    Parent

    Speaking for myself, I'm never going to (5.00 / 0) (#70)
    by Joan in VA on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:44:19 PM EST
    get over it if his side can't stop the destructive antics. Seems like each week brings some new f-u. The RBC kangaroo court, preceeded by the RFK smear, continual childish petulance, preceeded by too many incidents to list. We need some grown-ups to run this country and he is not showing me that he and his advisors are capable of that. I have never seen such an immature person aspire to the highest office in this country-and that is saying something considering who holds that office now. I have never been so concerned about any Dem candidate before so it's more than just not being my favorite.

    Parent
    But whose duty is it to be big? (none / 0) (#84)
    by gandy007 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:56:34 PM EST
    I absolutely agreeanydemwilldo.

    What a big man would do.

    "[S]someone is going to have to be big enough to say",  my supporters were wrong to vilify Senator Clinton; they were wrong to suggest that Bill Clinton is a racist; and I should have spoken out against it. Further I should not have countenanced the sexism that was so prevalent among my supporters.

    Perhaps one of the most egregious things I did was to denigrate the administration of a fellow Democrat whose term in office was one of the most prosperous and successful of the twentieth century.

    Worst of all, I was wrong to compare his tenure with the administrations of perhaps the worst president of all time and his father, both Republicans.

    Mea culpa.

    That's what a big man would do!

    Parent

    No predictions about the primary results, but.. (none / 0) (#8)
    by outsider on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:03:06 PM EST
    If HRC wins one, Obama still limps across the finish line tonight.  If HRC wins both, I don't see how they can avoid a floorfight in Denver.

    i want a floor fight . (5.00 / 0) (#67)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:41:43 PM EST


    Parent
    I disagree. (none / 0) (#15)
    by JoeA on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:10:47 PM EST
    Many of Hillary's biggest Superdelegate backers have already said they expect there to be a nominee in the next day or two.

    Barbara Boxer has said she would not be a part of taking it to the convention.

    Tom Vilsack said he thought Hillary should concede and endorse Obama.

    If it looks like she is genuinely planning to take it to the convention I can see large numbers of her superdelegates defecting, and I think she knows it.

    Parent

    I think this is right (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:19:56 PM EST
    If Hillary tries to take it to the convention, she will lose at least 2/3 of her SD support on the first roll call. She's well aware of that, so she won't take it to the convention.

    Parent
    I Agree (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by BDB on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:32:37 PM EST
    Never forget the Democrats are politically weak.  I think they decided to go with Obama in February because the primary alone scared them.  They don't have any more stomach for a convention fight than they do for a FISA filibuster.  These people never fight over anything and threatening one is how you lose their support.

    I think she'll give a nice unity speech, may or may not technically suspend her campaign, and then wait and see what the summer brings.  She won't use the word concede and won't completely shut down her organization.  Even if the summer doesn't bring an Obama meltdown, she's going to want her delegates and SD backers so she can wring as much as she can out of the party and Obama behind the scenes as she plays nice publicly.  You don't get more voters than any Democrat in nominating history and then walk away with nothing.  That's not how politics works.  I don't care what the Obama Fan Base thinks, Hillary may not be the nominee, but she also won't be walking away empty handed.

    Parent

    If there's one thing... (5.00 / 0) (#78)
    by OrangeFur on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:02:38 PM EST
    ... that Democrats are good at, it's giving up too quickly.

    Parent
    Prediction (none / 0) (#16)
    by JoeA on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:12:42 PM EST
    Montana - Obama 56  - Clinton 44

    South Dakota - Obama 45 - Clinton 55

    predictions are for blowouts for hillary (5.00 / 0) (#72)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:45:11 PM EST
    in both states.

    Parent
    Actual results were (none / 0) (#87)
    by JoeA on Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 05:12:23 AM EST
    57% to 41% for Obama in Montana
    and
    55% 45% for Clinton in South Dakota.  I'm pretty happy with my predictions as I wasn't too far off with either.

    Parent
    Closer (none / 0) (#17)
    by waldenpond on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 01:18:18 PM EST
    than Obama projected.  If an article someone else linked to said SDs have committed to Obama even if he loses MT and SD (I don't expect it, but that would be the most ridiculous thing to support someone who has completely collapsed), I'm guessing internals in at least show they are closer.  So....

    Obama MT by 8 and SD by 6.

    My sister-in-law is visiting from Montana (none / 0) (#41)
    by esmense on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 02:07:45 PM EST
    and she says the Obama forces had a much earlier and have had a much greater presence in the state, and the enthusiasm for Obama in the college towns is over the top. Not exactly what I wanted to hear. (She's a Republican, so doesn't have a horse in the race.) The good news is she thinks Clinton is pretty well liked -- but her impression is that Obama has the advantage because his people just put more energy into the state and took it more seriously earlier on.

    Sorry (none / 0) (#81)
    by Upstart Crow on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:03:46 PM EST
    Being called a "Democrat" doesn't exactly make me wet my pants with excitement, especially lately. As for names, you folks have called me much worse things than "Republican." You're kind of out of ammo.

    Whatcha going to do next? Rough me up?  

    Prediction (none / 0) (#85)
    by gandy007 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 05:09:52 PM EST
    Montana  Obama by 9-11

    South Dakota  Clinton by 2-5

    I believe the fact that it's a closed primary will be the difference.  It will be most of the Old Guard vs. most of the Newbies and Clinton will prevail in that fight.

    A big upset to close out the season, despite voter suppression caused by today's turmoil.

    We who are about to die salute you, Hillary.

    Which attacks are we talking about? (none / 0) (#86)
    by Brian in MT on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 06:05:03 PM EST
    Hi.  I'm an Obama supporter, although I don't think I'm one of the angry ones mentioned above.  Was scanning the comments and just really want to know what Hillary supporters consider to be the slimy attacks and "offensive actions" and other things that people here keep mentioning Obama has performed against Clinton.  I don't doubt the conviction or anything, I'm just curious which incidents of this folks are talking about.  The sniper thing?  The NAFTA flip-flop thing?  Or other incidents?  I guess I'm just wondering, especially since I imagine a lot of us will be working together before too terribly long.

    Also, for what it's worth, I live in Montana.  I'm a biker and a hiker and I have a master's degree.  I also work hard, give back to my community, take care of my land, and vote.  I've worked in an iron foundry, I've worked in an office, and I make less than $25,000 a year.  But if folks like MontanaMaven up there suppose that the first three things prevent the two of us from working together...well then we're all screwed, MM.  And you and your buddy Red can fire off your handguns and down a celebratory Ranier in celebration of your victory over the "elitists" while we all slog through four more years of poverty, war, and disappearing civil rights.

    Montana And South Dakota Predictions Open Thread | 82 comments (82 topical)

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