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By Big Tent Democrat, Section Blog Related
Posted on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:37:33 AM EST
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    since I am from Montana (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by athyrio on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:43:10 AM EST
    I found this latest poll interesting and quite frankly not surprising after hearing the neighbors talk....
    poll

    Ugh! Uuuuuuuuuuuugh! (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:55:57 AM EST
    Seems I came back online just to get chapped and feel demeaned all at once.  Sorry everyone, but the only candidate that was going to pull off the new Democratic West was Clinton.  You aren't going to sell Hope and Change to people who live on Hope and Change into people who dig each other out of twenty foot snow drifts yearly no matter what their party affiliation is.  You must come bearing the Change and not just talking it.  In the West you have to BRING IT and look who's bringing it.....John McCain.

    Parent
    Bringing it? (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:04:50 PM EST
    You mean like telling us that our water rightfully belongs to AZ?  That kind of bringing it?  Or the drill here, drill now, drill everywhere kind of bringing it?

    JSM3 is not creditable on any "Western" issue.

    Parent

    He minced those words down to nothing (none / 0) (#65)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:40:09 PM EST
    I'm talking serious here...not just a bunch of political hacking junkies but seriously.  If you want to win in the West you have to Bring Tangible and Obama is bringing nothing tangible.

    Parent
    I believe that Obama... (none / 0) (#112)
    by desertswine on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 03:00:14 PM EST
    will win not one Southern State and not one Cowboy State, anyway.

    (Florida and maybe NM excepted)?

    Parent

    I think you are right on (none / 0) (#117)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:19:22 PM EST
    right down your speculated "possible" exceptions.  

    Parent
    Counting out the demographic (none / 0) (#122)
    by Candace4Kansas on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:08:31 PM EST
    The south is full of first time voters that are voting for one reason ....there is a first time black presidential candidate.  The democratic turnout during the primaries was astronomical.  At 90% for Obama,  the black south will have a strong saying in the next president of the US.

    Parent
    Don't remind (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:07:44 PM EST
    me. I get mad all over at the fact that things could have been completely different than they are.

    Parent
    SUSA McCain up 20 in NC (5.00 / 0) (#32)
    by ChuckieTomato on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:10:05 PM EST
    Also pulled ahead in VA according to EVOTE

    Parent
    And now the new FACT CHECK ad (2.00 / 0) (#44)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:21:50 PM EST
    from McCain...

    link

    Parent

    Wolves (3.00 / 0) (#93)
    by MKS on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:29:37 PM EST
    Palin favors hunting them from helicopters.  I don't like it but some do....

    Parent
    I don't (5.00 / 0) (#33)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:10:09 PM EST
    know why anyone ever bought in that phony map changer argument Obama was selling. BTD was right when he said the swing states in 2008 are the same as they were in 2004.

    If Obama holds MI, he'll the only sure addition over Kerry will be IA right now.

    Parent

    An 11 point advantage for McCain... (3.00 / 1) (#21)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:03:22 PM EST
    doesn't look good for obama.  Maybe he can close the gap, but right now, not looking good.

    Parent
    Ouch. (none / 0) (#14)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:56:32 AM EST
    I'd hoped we were doing better than that here. Last poll in July had Obama up by 3, IIRC. Do you think Bob Barr and Ron Paul will take enough of McCain's vote to help us? I'm hoping the NRA will come out strong for Barr, that could help by a few points.

    Parent
    No eleanora I think Obama (none / 0) (#26)
    by athyrio on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:06:19 PM EST
    is toast in Montana from all I have observed as well as polls..IMO folks were waiting for him to put his hope and change into descriptions of his plans etc and he really never did that...

    Parent
    Rats. (none / 0) (#54)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:29:18 PM EST
    I always thought Montana was a long shot, but I hoped we could keep it close anyway. I'm hearing same as you are, though, the Rs here are mad at BushCo but don't really trust Obama to do anything but raise taxes.

    Parent
    Its still not too late to do it though (none / 0) (#70)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:50:40 PM EST
    But its getting there.

    Parent
    Lipstick lost me my job (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by coigue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:48:08 AM EST
    caused my house foreclosure, and ruined my kids education.

    CERN collider (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:53:37 AM EST
    experiment goes active today! BBC says the switch-on went really well.
    "We will be looking at what the Universe was made of billionths of a second after the Big Bang. That is amazing, that really is fantastic."

    The LHC should answer one very simple question: What is mass?"

    This rap video is awesomely fun and science friendly:

    ""We love the rap," says James Gillies, CERN spokesman. "The science is spot on, and all the feedback that's come to me from physicists is positive. I think that Kate is a little bowled over.""

    And you can check here to find out "Has the Large Hadron Collider destroyed the earth yet?" I love when scientists get all happy :)

    The oracle of Colorado Springs... (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:01:45 PM EST
    ...James "Jimmy" Dobson was saying that if they started up the collider, it would bring about the rapture or some such nonsense.  

    And here I was looking forward to claiming all that prime real estate FOTF has.  Bummer.

    Parent

    IL the whole idea of rapture! (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:30:54 PM EST
    Either the fundies all leave, or we do. Sounds like a win-win :)

    Parent
    Dobson's right... (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by santarita on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:37:37 PM EST
    the end for Earth is near ... in several million years.   Nearer today than yesterday.

    Parent
    Thanks for those links (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by elmey on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:05:23 PM EST
    I'd be excited too if I were a physicist.  Heck I'm excited anyway.

    I know several people who need the "Has the large hadron collider destroyed the earth yet" link!

    Parent

    I have a friend who ... (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:10:12 PM EST
    sends me headlines she finds amusing.

    She sent me this one this morning:

    Big Bang Experiment Starts Well
    --BBC News Online

    Pretty funny, I thought.

    Parent

    ABC News (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:01:45 PM EST
    did an investigative report on the question of whether Palin really tried to ban books from the local library as Mayor, and whether she tried to fire the town librarian for not going along with it.

    Check out the story and video.  It's hard to get past the fact that she was elected thanks to the strong support of her church, and that the church was agitated right around the same time about trying to get certain books (mostly gay-friendly ones, apparently) removed from the library.

    I think this gives some insight into whether she would be, if elected, a culture warrior.

    She doesn't come across as a culture warrior (none / 0) (#56)
    by Roz on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:31:47 PM EST
    in the 2006 gubernatorial debate archived at C-Span.

    In fact, she seems to differentiate between her personal beliefs and state policy and constitutional requirements and repeatedly expresses her understanding that abortion is very sensitive and a "very private matter." (at about 14 min. in).

    Once elected, what has she done in Alaska that warrants calling her a culture warrior?

    Parent

    Do you mean (none / 0) (#63)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:38:11 PM EST
    other than trying to ban gay-friendly books at the behest of her church?  I don't know.  It strikes me as a relevant data point.

    Parent
    Cozying up to the church (none / 0) (#74)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:51:28 PM EST
    that helped to get her elected?

    That's politics.  In my podunk hometown, the problem was that you would have to cozy up to multiple congregations.  If you could do that successfully, then you probably deserved to win the election!  (Not talking Baptist A, B and C.  More like historically divided congregations - Catholic, Protestant, Baptist...)

    Parent

    Well guess what (none / 0) (#77)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:55:07 PM EST
    when you run for President as a Republican, folks like James Dobson help you get elected.  So it's relevant to know whether a candidate is willing to do their bidding.

    If Exxon and Halliburton help Bush/Cheney get elected, and Bush/Cheney thereafter do favors for Exxon and Halliburton, I'd agree that "that's politics."  But I'd also agree that it's a good reason not to support candidates who will be doing favors for Exxon and Halliburton.

    Parent

    SOP for Republicans. (none / 0) (#85)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:05:20 PM EST
    She's a Republican.  No surprise there.

    I keep wondering why people seem to feel the need to say "Republicans are bad.  Bad, bad Republicans!".  Why not say "Democrats are awesome!  You'd never find a Democrat cozying up to an influential religious institution just to win an election!" ?

    Parent

    Because (none / 0) (#90)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:26:33 PM EST
    there is a debate about whether Palin would actually do the bidding of the Religious Right in office, or if she has a history of keeping her evangelical religion out of her policymaking.

    If the debate is open-and-shut as far as you're concerned, then great.  No need to participate in it.  For my part, I see it as a live debate, which is why I am submitting evidence in it.

    Parent

    Just think of them (none / 0) (#99)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:47:19 PM EST
    as lobbyists whose clients are religious groups, not business interests.

    That should answer your questions.  As in, yes, they will strive to forward the aims of those interests as long they don't conflict with greater goals or other, more powerful, interests.

    Overturn Roe v. Wade?  Probably not.  That's too important to keeping the Republicans in power.  Restricting access to abortion care and reducing support for fact based sex ed?  Sure.  The Bush administration has created innovative ways to subvert federal agencies.

    Republicans are pretty straight forward and hide bound.  They rarely change their ways unless you dangle huge amounts of money in front of them - or if they are afraid of losing elections.

    If Sarah Palin doesn't act or talk like a Moderate, the odds are good that she isn't one.  I no more believe that Palin will suddenly become a moderate conservative than I believe Obama will become a fervent progressive.

    Parent

    Well, so far I'm seeing a pragmatist (none / 0) (#123)
    by Roz on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:21:48 PM EST
    who, while being pro-life, seems to be focused on doing the public's business as Governor rather than pushing a Christian right agenda.

    I understand as mayor of Wasilla she inquired about the library's policy of removing books in response to protesters. Yet she did not actually attempt to ban any specific book, as far as I can tell. I don't know the full context of this episode. I expect Charlie Gibson or others in the media will ask her about it, or that it will be addressed in the debate.

    Is there anything else she has done or has said she would like to do as Governor that indicates she is not a "moderate conservative" (not really sure what that is) or is bent on doing the Christian right's bidding?

    Parent

    Whatever her personal (none / 0) (#79)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:55:39 PM EST
    inclinations might be, I think Gov Palin will get forced into cultural warrior status if McCain gets elected. He's going to need her to cover his flank in office, just like she's doing in the GE. She'd be really pushed to do lots of Faith-Based Initiative stuff, maybe help push the school vouchers idea to keep the fundie base happy.

    Parent
    Doesn't Obama like vouchers? (none / 0) (#109)
    by nycstray on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:44:43 PM EST


    Parent
    Geez, I hope not! (none / 0) (#121)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:41:31 PM EST
    I thought Sen Obama was anti-NCLB, pro-public school funding, and against any truck with vouchers, unless that's changed recently.

    Parent
    the political dark arts (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:02:21 PM EST
    get your own ugly frog

    Skip the frogs (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:11:57 PM EST
    Stick to the issues.

    Attacks are meant to hurt, but mainly to distract.  There's now way to get your message out if the media is busy covering the latest attack/response/counter attack.

    Your primary focus should always be Getting The Message Out.  It's okay to take a little time out to address an attack, but never let it take precedent over The Message.  If you spend too much time responding to this attack or that rumor, two things will happen.  The Message will suffer AND the GOP will attack more, not less.

    Never be needlessly distracted.  You can't afford it.  Time is money and money is votes.

    Parent

    not responding to the attacks make your own attack (none / 0) (#45)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:23:30 PM EST
    McCain has said done enough for a gazillion ads

    Parent
    The Clinton 1992 War Room (none / 0) (#58)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:32:57 PM EST
    Clinton had a rapid response team that spent all day every day figuring out the message to frame the day.

    Parent
    Good idea. (none / 0) (#67)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:46:58 PM EST
    Consistency is key also.  If you attack, make it something that the American people care about.  Do not, as the bloggers, talk about how "racist" the appearance of Paris Hilton was in the Celebrity ad.  Like Pat Public cares about that!

    So if the media goes ga-ga over Palin, pick something you want to talk about and connect it to Palin.  Healthcare and Palin?  Maybe Healthcare and Alaska?  Does AK have a higher or lower percent of uninsured than the other 49 states?  Can you use that?

    Palin and her sister's divorce?  Irrelevant.

    Parent

    Just one quick observation... (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:10:16 PM EST
    I think that partly what's hitting the Obama campaign hard are repercussions from what they did in the primaries.

    Early on, the McCain went after Obama over playing the race card. This attack got great credibility because of how the Obama campaign/side tried to slam Bill Clinton as a racist in the primaries.

    Now, the McCain campaign is having what appears to be a very effective attack on Obama over his use of sexism. This attack too gets great credibility because of how Obama and his campaign/side exploited sexism in the primaries.

    In both cases, when Obama and his campaign/side protest against the attack, they no longer seem to be doing so in good faith because of how they behaved in the primaries. Once, they might be forgiven or excused by the public. But not twice in a row.

    It's all a matter of chickens coming home to roost. The Obama campaign won the primaries by using methods that damaged them terribly when it came to campaigning in the general.

    I think it's funny (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Faust on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:28:00 PM EST
    that Obama exploits these issues while McCain has a very "effective attack."

    In your world Obama is an exploiter of identity politcs while McCain is an effective..uhhhhhh....lets say "user" of these issues. Cause McCain would never "exploit" them.

    Parent

    Yup ... (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:28:14 PM EST
    he's also dealing with the repercussions of his campaign not effectively communicating their policies.

    Parent
    I cannot believe (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:23:53 PM EST
    that of all the Democrats who could have brought out this cheesy analogy, it had to be Steve Cohen of all people.

    Geez (none / 0) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:27:04 PM EST
    this sounds just like those crazed Bushies.

    Parent
    Cohen Is From the Bible Belt (none / 0) (#75)
    by liberalone on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:52:59 PM EST
    Jewish or not, I am sure he heard that one from someone from his hometown.  Besides, we still need to pull in at least one or two evangelical votes.  

    Parent
    From my experience (none / 0) (#81)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:56:19 PM EST
    down in the Bible Belt, there's an awful lot of evangelicals who think that folks named Cohen killed their king.  I try to leave that alone.

    Parent
    I hear you (none / 0) (#91)
    by liberalone on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:28:32 PM EST
    Cohen just won his primary in a majority black district where some were playing the religion, gender and race card.  I think he received 80% of the vote.  He probably feels invincible right now.  

    Seriously, I agreed with your original post and I agree with your response as well.

    Parent

    The McCain Campaign Lockout (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by shoephone on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:32:18 PM EST
    I just spent 20 minutes trying to get a contact number for my local McCain Campaign office, in Bellevue, WA. I intend to call and rake them over the coals for that vile TV ad. To find the number through the campaign website was like walking through a maze. Clicking on WA on their state map got me a number in... Las Vegas! Finally, from them I got the Bellevue number, but when I called I got a voice mail telling me that, though the office is indeed open from 9 am - 9 pm M-S, I would have to leave my name number and email and someone would get back to me at some point.

    Possibilities:

    1. They screen calls because they are still unprepared to speak directly to the public

    2. The line is constantly busy because of callers like me who want to rake them over the coals for their nasty and dishonest campaign tactics

    3. They are total amateurs when it comes to running a campaign operation in all 50 states.

    4. All of the above


    Or.... (none / 0) (#83)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:01:12 PM EST
    they just don't feel like working and they are letting the voicemail field the calls.  

    At least I feel like that is the case with some of my contacts here at work:)

    Parent

    litigatormom posted this (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by lilburro on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:36:32 PM EST
    in the last thread and I thought this was pretty good from Obama, so I wanted to repost it and open it for discussion:

    Obama on the lipstick shtick

    Some of you may have -- I'm assuming you guys have heard this, watching the news. I'm talking about John McCain's economic politics, I say, "This is more of the same, you can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig."
    And suddenly they say, "Oh, you must be talking about the governor of Alaska."
    [Laughter from audience]

    See it would be funny, it would be funny except -- of course the news media all decided that that was the lead story yesterday. They'd much rather have the story -- this is the McCain campaign -- would much rather have the story about phony and foolish diversions than about the future.

    This happens every election cycle. Every four years. This is what we do. We've got an energy crisis. We have an education system that is not working for too many of our children and making us less competitive. We have an economy that is creating hardship for families all across America. We've got two wars going on, veterans coming home not being cared for -- and this is what they want to talk about! this is what they want to spend two of the last 55 days talking about.

    You know who ends up losing at the end of the day? It's not the Democratic candidate, It's not the republican candidate. It's you, the American people. because then we go another year or another four years or another eight years without addressing the issues that matter to you. Enough.

    I don't care what they say about me, but I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and swift-boat politics. Enough is enough.

    I think this is the kind of response that will carry him through this diversion, and hopefully this is the kind of response that will carry him through debates.  

    Because it is really something when the party that doesn't support equal pay for equal work, or a woman's right to choose, is willing to take up the mantle of battling sexism for their own ends.  

    If women had not fought for the right to choose and for equal pay, I doubt a woman like Sarah Palin would've been able to emerge in the halls of power.  Her positions are a disgrace to feminism's pioneers.

    Anyway, this was a great find litigatormom.

    Right Approach... (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by santarita on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:50:46 PM EST
    He needs to keep negative branding the Republican style of politics.  They are the Masters of Distraction.  It is really their best hope in this election.

    I think Obama also needs to avoid the clever lines and cheap shots.  Let Biden do that.  Obama needs to hold himself out not as an elitist but as a person that has the dignity that befits the Presidency.  He can have fun with the bon mots after he is President.

    Parent

    It does sound good.... (none / 0) (#78)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:55:26 PM EST
    but I guess I'm too cynical to buy it, sounds like just another election strategy.  Talking about the issues without really talking about the issues...if that makes any sense.

    Yes, we all know that energy prices are killing people, that schools are lacking, that veterans are not being properly cared for and compensated, that the economy sucks.  What we don't know is what to do about it?  I know it ain't easy but that is why people give your campaign millions of dollars...to figure out a plan, not to state the obvious.

    Parent

    I heard him say it on CNN (none / 0) (#98)
    by ruffian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:44:50 PM EST
    and it came across really well - strong and confident, not whiny at all.

    I'd like to see more like that.

    Parent

    Only problem is that (none / 0) (#115)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 03:20:13 PM EST
    He is out repeating the charges against him and fueling the "pig-gate" as it were. Not that he shouldn't defend himself, but it just shows how much McCain has gained control of the discussion right now.

    Parent
    Had Jury duty yesterday ... (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:59:32 PM EST
    sat around most of the day.  Got questioned on only one case.  They didn't want me.  Was sent home of the day.  Won't have to serve again for eight years.  Or, to put that another way, two presidential elections from now.

    But I have to say they've come a long way to make jury service in Brooklyn more comfortable.  The jury assembly room is now more like an airport lounge than something you'd expect to find in a government building.

    Comfy chairs, wifi-fi, widescreen tvs, Internet terminals (I even posted a comment to Talkleft), and air conditioning that would make a supermarket frozen foods aisle jealous.

    If they set a remake of TWELVE ANGRY MEN there, it might be called:  TWELVE RELAXED DUDES.

    ;)

    Thank G-d (none / 0) (#86)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:10:14 PM EST
    they got rid of smoking in public buildings.  The courthouse used to be a dreadful place to spend time in just because of the smoke.  It's still no treat, but at least you aren't trapped with a lot of anxious people who smoke to calm their nerves.

    Parent
    Now I'm trapped..... (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:55:07 PM EST
    and seperated from my fix by armed guards.  

    Fair enough, I understand, just show me to the metal detector and the door...but give me back my pub goddamnit!..:)

    Parent

    They do let smokers go ... (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:13:45 PM EST
    outside to smoke without being marked absent if they miss they're name being called.

    Parent
    Dang. I remember hard benches (none / 0) (#108)
    by nycstray on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:43:23 PM EST
    and the only thing my laptop was good for was working! And I had to stick around for 2.5 days and started getting notices for the other court shortly after. I thought we were on a 3yr cycle?

    Parent
    I think (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by CST on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:59:06 PM EST
    This is a pretty outdated view of racism, you are bringing up something from 1955.

    Speaking for me only.

    But I am in an inter-racial relationship and I have to say, I have heard some seriously racist stuff in my life, and it wasn't about that.  Racism today is much more subtle.  I don't think that inter-racial relationships are that big a deal anymore.  And I really don't think that's what they were going for with Palin.

    If you (none / 0) (#113)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 03:03:38 PM EST
    believe this then you believe that Obama has been helping them out with his behavior. He shouldn't have attacked Hillary then.

    Parent
    Poll Dancing, and Hyperventilating Over Lipstick (3.00 / 0) (#31)
    by Edger on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:09:21 PM EST
    From Steve Clemons at The Washington Note on Monday:

    Now we've had a few days to see that in fact Sarah Palin has revved up a lot of Republicans.  She has also animated a lot on the left who fear her, and Barack Obama's coffers are filling up fast with donations in response to the McCain/Palin ticket.

    But among many progressive political junkies, of whom I consider myself one, a real depression has set in.

    They see poll numbers showing a significant bounce for McCain -- with one poll showing him 10 points ahead.  CNN has McCain ahead by two and the Washington Post has McCain and Obama in a dead heat.  But most other polls show McCain ahead at this point -- and that is making a lot of pundits, writers, and activists hyperventilate.  

    Guardian US editor Michael Tomasky wrote a note to me and a few others today encouraging folks to calm down.  I quote him with permission:

    Let's calm down a little. Let's not live and die by the last poll or the last thing that Candy Crowley said. This will be decided by 1) debates 2) field and 3) ads, in that order.

    Tomasky is wise.  There is a long way to go in the race.  I remember when John Kerry and Michael Dukakis were considerably ahead at this point in their races, and they were still defeated.  The same fate could befall McCain.

    But this site seems to do a better job than any others I have seen of not getting seduced into the laziness of national polls.  It uses state polls to sort out what might happen in the electoral college.

    FiveThirtyEight.com notes that there is new polling in five key swing states and after sorting it out, the analyst notes that McCain has made some modest inroads but that Obama still wins if the election was held tomorrow.  298 to 240 electoral votes.
    Fivethirtyeight (5.00 / 0) (#40)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:14:22 PM EST
    is being run by an Obama apologist. I wouldn't rely on anything it said. Look for better analysis that's out there.

    Parent
    What qualifies him as an Obama apologist? (none / 0) (#71)
    by badguppy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:50:45 PM EST
    He's pretty respected across the blogosphere.

    Parent
    What qualifies (none / 0) (#89)
    by standingup on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:24:49 PM EST
    the blogosphere?  

    Parent
    This reliance on state polls (3.00 / 0) (#41)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:16:28 PM EST
    is pretty ridiculous, given the dynamism of the race.

    Look, there are never as many state polls at a given time as national polls, and so they never capture anything resembling a good snapshot of the race on a state by state basis (until near the end of the campaign, when a great number of state polls are conducted).

    I'm sure that the number of state polls reflecting, in particular, the post convention bounce for McCain is pretty meager. Acting as though they give better information than the large number of post convention national polls is absurd.

    Parent

    Trends in state polls is important. (none / 0) (#87)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:14:03 PM EST
    That's what I'd be looking for.  That should separate out the reddest and bluest states and show which ones hang in the balance and which way they are trending.

    Snapshots are never that useful.  You need patterns, trends, history in order to make good predictions.  That's what polls are really about, not what IS but what WILL BE.

    Parent

    When you say (none / 0) (#114)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 03:12:10 PM EST
    snapshots are "never that useful", you forget that are particular situations where they are actually exactly what you may want: namely, after a major event, such as conventions.

    The problem with state polls, given their huge time lag, is that they really only give a "snapshot" with, in effect, an "exposure time" of several months.

    How useful is it to talk about who will win in November in the electoral college when it is based on state polls that don't in any way factor into account major events that took place since they were conducted?

    If you can't adjust your numbers for current events, their value is pretty dubious.

    Parent

    That site is biased (none / 0) (#49)
    by ChuckieTomato on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:26:37 PM EST
    It's similar to the analysis kos gave a couple days ago. He used month old polling showing mcCain losing states he is now winning.

    Parent
    OKC Thunder! (none / 0) (#1)
    by Klio on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:38:55 AM EST
    got my season tickets before they capped them!  w00t

    Still the Sonics to me:).... (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:43:51 AM EST
    Happy for ya...but that is trumped by how awful I feel for Seattle fans...they got done so wrong.

    Parent
    Amen to that! (none / 0) (#9)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:52:21 AM EST
    They will always be the Super Sonics to me.  Lousy, no-good, greedy, carpetbagging SOB's

    Parent
    so harsh! (none / 0) (#37)
    by Klio on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:11:10 PM EST
    Not carpetbaggers, surely?

    Anyway, no matter what you call the team, we'll treat 'em good, I promise :-)

    Parent

    That won't matter.... (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:17:39 PM EST
    when a better deal comes along and all of a sudden your holding an empty arena and the fans in Mexico City are psyched about their Mexico City Campesinos season tickets.

    Nature of the beast I guess...until the fans wise up and demand better for their patronage.

    Sorry to rain on your parade but that owner you've got and David Stern are a couple of lying slugs.

    Parent

    As far as this Seattleite is concerned (none / 0) (#66)
    by shoephone on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:44:57 PM EST
    Good riddance to bad rubbish. The Sonics have been mismanaged for years, the various owners have paid huge sums for players who can't deliver and they offer virtually nothing to the city. We, the taxpayers, bought them a new stadium in 1994 and we, the taxpayers, are still on the hook for paying down the bonds because the team got a sweetheart deal. Howard Schultz screw*d us with his demands for another taxpayer subsidy for yet another new stadium, and whined and moaned that we were being so mean about OUR money. Then, in a tantrum, he sold the team to the snakes from Oklahoma, who lied repeatedly to the public and to the the city government about their intention to keep the team here in Seattle (but then emails surfaced to document their lies) and now they are finally gone.

    Seattle will survive, the Seattle Center and the Key Arena will survive, and we can all breathe a sigh of relief that we beat back at least one huge corporate entity that was acting like a bully and demanding a totally unjustified taxpayer subsidy.

    Seattle wins.


    Parent

    Oh, and David Stern? (none / 0) (#69)
    by shoephone on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:48:51 PM EST
    What a pig.

    Parent
    Agreed... (none / 0) (#76)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:54:32 PM EST
    ...must. fight. urge. to. make. lipstick. joke.

    Parent
    ROFL.......... (none / 0) (#80)
    by shoephone on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:56:03 PM EST


    Parent
    Good for you.... (none / 0) (#92)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:29:36 PM EST
    I hope I'll feel the same if one my teams gets pulled out from under me...good riddance.

    I'm rather pissed that the Mets have the gaul to charge something 800 bucks for a pair of seats from Shea, that is set to be torn down after the season.  It should be 80 bucks tops, if not free, its all going to the scrapyard anyway...especially considering Shea was taxpayer funded back in 1964, and the new ballpark is also taxpayer funded.  It would be cool to have two upper deck seats for the front stoop, but at 800 bucks you've got to be joking.  

    Hopefully the last game is a World Series victory and the fans go nuts and rip out all the seats they want to bring home...free of charge, as well an any other souvenirs of good old Shea.  They belong to the city more than they belong to the Wilpons anyway.  Think of the demolition labor savings:)

    Parent

    some folks around here (none / 0) (#2)
    by Lil on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:39:14 AM EST
    may enjoy Steven Weber's post On Huff Po.

    Research question (none / 0) (#5)
    by kredwyn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:44:37 AM EST
    Does anyone know where I might go to find credible research on the effects of Depleted Uranium (and oil fire smoke) on Desert Storm (1991) vets?

    The GAO reports are already in-hand. However, I need more research, and the credibility has to be of a scientific...above reproach...nature.

    Eons ago I used to use Index Medicus (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by befuddledvoter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:52:04 AM EST
    That stopped publishing around 2004, being replaced by Medline.  I think this link may get you going on research:

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/

    I assume large public or university library would have free public access to journal articles.

    Parent

    thanks... (none / 0) (#15)
    by kredwyn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:01:30 PM EST
    My college has access to some databases...and I'll be going down to the LOC later this week.

    But I've been foundering with where to begin...

    Parent

    Those guys are all faking (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:01:47 PM EST
    trying to nurse off the Eagle's breast :) I don't know where to find anything scientific.  If I did I'd probably disappear soon after.  I have friends though who came back with possible chemical exposure when they did blow up some of Saddam's chemical weapon storage facilities when he really did have them.  The wind was blowing the stuff into the camps.  The camps had sensors in them to detect a chemical attack and they kept triggering the sirens in the camps but the soldiers where told they were malfunctioning.  Then they all came home and started faking sick.

    Parent
    can you email me... (none / 0) (#20)
    by kredwyn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:02:58 PM EST
    at hotmail?

    Parent
    Sure (none / 0) (#27)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:07:17 PM EST


    Parent
    Because depleted uranium (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:19:44 PM EST
    is a heavy metal, symptoms should be consistent with generic heavy metal poisoning.  The worst way to be exposed to a heavy metal is inhaling it because anything that lodges in the lungs takes the longest to get rid of.

    People focus on the "radioactive" nature of DPU which is a mistake.  Lead, mercury and other heavy metals are not radioactive, but they are very toxic even in small quantities.  

    Parent

    Look what happened to this poor.... (none / 0) (#7)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:50:11 AM EST
    slob over in Tel Aviv...unbelievable how innocent people get treated sometimes.  Ordered to dance to prove you're not a terrorist because your first name is Abdur-Rahim?  Link

    The guy handled it with alotta class and humility...

    He said he did not file a complaint, explaining, "We're only here to bring positive light to our lives and the people here."

    Bigger man than me...I'd probably be in a 6X8 after telling those badges where to go.  Dance?  Dance my foot right up your arse, mofo.

    Here's an issue post (none / 0) (#11)
    by coigue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:54:27 AM EST
    over al big orange.

    The issue: an analysis of the Obama nd McCain tax proposals. The source: Business Week

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/10/1202/00678/313/589557

    Short version: Obama gives tax breaks to more people in the middle class and strains the budget less in doing so than McCain.

    That would ... (none / 0) (#30)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:07:55 PM EST
    make a good ad.

    Parent
    Larry Craig's (none / 0) (#13)
    by eric on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:55:57 AM EST
    lawyers are at the Minnesota Court of Appeals today arguing that he should be able to withdraw is guilty plea.  As you will recall, he pled guilty by mail then tried to retract this plea once it became public.  The he resigned.  Then the said it was only his intent to resign, and didn't actually resign.

    The CW here is that he doesn't really have much chance of winning, but wants to take this as far as he can in the courts so he can avoid resigning until the end of his term.

    C'mon Larry - drag it out! (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:03:39 PM EST
    In public, if you please.

    Poor Craig, where are his GOP buddies now when he really need them?

    Craig shouldn't complain - how many years of public service (hurl!) did he put in?  Bet he's got a comfy benefits package to ease his return to private life.

    Parent

    i've seen a couple (none / 0) (#28)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:07:43 PM EST
    of references on other sites today that Obama is going on Letterman tonight to "explain" the lipstick on a pig comment.

    That can't really be true, can it?  It would just extend it through another day's news.

    Well... (none / 0) (#36)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:10:53 PM EST
    ...he is scheduled to appear on Letterman.  Haven't heard what he's going to talk about though.

    Parent
    I jus heard Obama on CNN (none / 0) (#39)
    by ruffian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:12:59 PM EST
    calling out the media and the McCain campaign waisting 2 days on trivia when there are important issues to discuss. It was very effective.  Hope he doesn't undermine it tonight.

    Parent
    He should worry about speaking out about (none / 0) (#48)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:25:02 PM EST
    issues, not that McCain isn't...that would do him more good, imo

    Parent
    I hope he'll forget about lipstick and pigs.... (none / 0) (#59)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:33:31 PM EST
    and explain why the war on drugs is still raging.

    Or how the hell we will ever get out from under the weight of national debt and interest payments.

    Or when the men and women in Iraq and Afghanistan can come home where they belong to care for their families?

    I don't need to her an explanation of the common figure of speech "lipstick on a pig".  I already speak english and am quite familar with many of our figures of speech.

    Parent

    Paul Begla (none / 0) (#47)
    by Faust on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:24:24 PM EST
    attempts to take on the media.

    Anyone think he'll be successful?

    Sorry, that's only for Republicans.

    Fresh cream peas in the cooker for supper (none / 0) (#53)
    by Angel on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:29:02 PM EST
    tonight.  Hurricane Ike heading our way.  Sister coming for a visit.  16-week old puppy in my lap.  Hubby came home for lunch today.  Life is good.

    Good luck, Angel. (none / 0) (#64)
    by eleanora on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:39:41 PM EST
    I hope you all stay safe, Ike sounds really nasty. Sending prayers and good vibes your way!

    Parent
    Thank you! (none / 0) (#68)
    by Angel on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:47:10 PM EST


    Parent
    Say hey to the puppy! (none / 0) (#84)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:01:41 PM EST
    My old guy(doggie) is having surgery to remove his leg(very painful cancerous lesion).  We look forward to many more pain free months with his three legged self before the cancer finally takes him. (Bone cancer in dogs is very aggressive and there is no "cure".  Chemo just knocks it back temporarily, at best.)

    My son insists we need to get a puppy with orange spots he will name "Mojo".  I promised him that he can name the puppy whenever we get it, but that I decide which puppy we get.  He was a bit freaked when I told him about the amputation.  I hurried to tell him that you aren't awake for surgery and that you don't remember what happens during it.  I did this 5 minutes before the bus came.  (Parental learning experience #XXX.)  

    Parent
    I and my sweet puppy send love to you, your (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by Angel on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:34:43 PM EST
    son and your doggie.  Enjoy all the moments you have with him.

    Parent
    Dogs do quite well on 3 (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by nycstray on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:54:13 PM EST
    good luck on the surgery and many, many months of doggie time for you and your family.

    Parent
    He was waking up (none / 0) (#116)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:10:50 PM EST
    after surgery and trying to get up.  He probably feels tons better already!  Here's hoping they can keep him from removing the dressing.  He's going to try like mad to get it off.  I just know it.

    I wondered why he's been panting so much and they told me it's a common response to pain.  I wished I had known that before. :-(

    Parent

    T-shirts help to keep the dressing on (5.00 / 1) (#118)
    by nycstray on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:31:04 PM EST
    if he'll wear one. Just knot it behind his ribs (assuming it's a front leg). You could try Boxers for the back leg and just stitch or knot the one leg opening. Also, if they have him on pain killers for a few days, he may resist the urge until it starts healing a bit.

    On the panting, I tend to forget it's pain. My dog isn't a heavy panter, so I would think she was sick (fever or stomach), not pain probably. Many times we don't learn stuff like that until something happens. Don't beat yourself up about it, just store it away for future reference and think of all who read this will now know  :)

    I've seen quite a few 3 leggers in rescues/shelters and it's amazing how they adapt. Main thing is to watch their weight so as not to over-stress the compensating leg. There was one couple at the dog run that adopted a second tri-pod. Both were young active dogs and could really hold their own!

    Parent

    It's his rear leg. (none / 0) (#119)
    by Fabian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 05:59:22 PM EST
    And he's a good candidate since he's been effectively three legging it for two weeks now.  His spirit is just incredible.  That's why we decided to do what we could for him.  If he can deal with it, then we can deal with it.  

    Parent
    Best of luck to you all. (none / 0) (#120)
    by tree on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 06:14:10 PM EST
    Sounds like you have a wonderful dog and he has wonderful people.

    Parent
    Anyone think its hypocritical to condemn (none / 0) (#60)
    by ding7777 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:34:25 PM EST
    Sheriff Joe Arpaio for shaming punishments while condemning private citizens (the Palin family) who voiced objections of an Alaskan State Trooper (Wooten) who Tazers his own son?

    I will not vote for McCain but the double standard of Talkleft needs to be aired.

    Anyone think... (none / 0) (#73)
    by JAB on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:50:46 PM EST
    The latest Rev. Wright scandal will affect Obama?

    Link

    Add this on to the ads they are airing in Michigan about Obama's comments from a while back saying what a great mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is/was, plus the upcoming barrage of stuff that has to be ready to go about Ayers and Rezko.

    Anyone think this will have an effect?

    I picked up a new Starbucks cold coffee (none / 0) (#88)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:21:26 PM EST
    at a gas station yesterday.  It was a doubleshot with vitamins and also guarana and ginseng for more energy.  Soon I won't even need to eat food.

    Lol... (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:36:46 PM EST
    I know the feeling, sometimes I go so overboard with the cigs and caffeine during the day I forget to eat dinner.

    Then I enjoy the after-work "other" smoke and remember in a flash...need red meat! :)

    Parent

    I gave up the cigs about 13 yrs ago now (none / 0) (#100)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:53:54 PM EST
    All I have left is the caffeine and that Lance Armstrong CFS drink stuff can kick some butt.  Now that V8 has that new blend where you can drink a serving of vegetables and a serving of fruit all in one glass.......I'm going to become a vegetarian and take up heavy drinking :)  Simplicity

    Parent
    That's how they got Chuck Berry too.... (none / 0) (#97)
    by kdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:44:26 PM EST
    and also what brought us cocaine prohibition....the irrational fear.

    Old habits die hard...maybe by the time I'm the oldest cat on the block we'll be past such nonsense.

    Maybe it's a generational thing (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by CST on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:01:12 PM EST
    But honestly, it's so common among people my age, it's irrelevant as a racial issue.  And even old people don't stare as much as I expected.

    Parent
    Bush Interior Department... (none / 0) (#110)
    by desertswine on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:50:15 PM EST
    The reports portray a dysfunctional organization that has been riddled with conflicts of interest, unprofessional behavior and a free-for-all atmosphere for much of the Bush administration's watch.

    Dammit. It's the anger.

    Americans Aren't Stupid? (none / 0) (#124)
    by HMB Steve on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:43:10 AM EST
    On MSNBC this week, Barack Obama implied that logic and rationality will win the day this year. He needs to know he's bucking history.

    In my memory, Americans have voted for: a secret plan to end the war [Vietnam], Voodoo Economics, Willie Horton, Compassionate Conservatives and the Swiftboaters.  Democrats, wake up!

    This emperor isn't wearing any clothes!  If McCain will fight for us, who's he going to fight?  

    US politics is a blood sport.  It's no-holds-barred ultimate fighting.  You gotta push them down. keep pounding on them and don't ever let them back up.  In short, close the deal.

    But please don't rely on the intelligence of the voting public.  That's a proven loser.

    Wednesday Open Thread | 119 comments (119 topical)

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