My misguided pre game analysis:
From Sport Left:
The Colts play the Saints today in Super Bowl XLIV. (Don't you hate the roman numerals schtick now?) The colts are the better team. But the Vikings were the better team in the NFC Championship game. The best team does not always win.
The line is Colts (+5 1/2). Looking at the game on the merits, the Colts seem the play. One objective point favors the Saints - Dwight Freeney's ankle. Based on the descriptions of the injury, it seems hard to imagine Freeney can play much, or effectively. Yet, I do not see that as a huge factor. Pressuring Drew Brees is a sketchy proposition anyway. The Vikings did not get much pressure on Brees, yet they shut down the Saints offense. To beat the Colts requires a team capable of physically dominating them. Is the Saints' running game up to it? I doubt it. the other key to the Saints' success this year has been turnovers. Their defense has been excellent at creating turnovers (some of it is random, but the Saints try and strip on every play. It is more than just random.)
On defense, the question for the Saints is how to stop Peyton Manning. Pressure is the conventional prescription, but it has not worked much in the past 4 years. Manning is clearly the best player in the NFL. He is at the top of his game. All of his receivers are healthy. The Saints defense is really not very good against the pass (or the run for that matter.) I do not see them stopping the Colts. I like the Colts, big. Take the Colts (-5 1/2).
On the prop bets, here is what I am playing:
Heads on the coin toss, Colts receive opening kick off, Saints get first first down, first first down comes on a running play, Saints score first, team that scores first loses the game, first score will be a field goal, first scoring play will be a Saints field goal, Colts will score the first TD, Colts will be the team to punt first, first call subject to coaches challenge will be upheld, first turnover will be a fumble, Saints will be the last team to score, last score will be a TD, a 4th down attempt will be converted, and finally, both teams will have the lead in the first half.
The full list of prop bets here.
